Football – Champions League – PSG – The conditions that would allow PSG to qualify against Belgrade

Champions League – PSG

A draw in Belgrade may be enough for PSG to qualify in the eighth. But that's not quite certain.

To reach the knockout stages, Paris has its destiny in hand. He wins in Belgrade and it's settled. Liverpool does not beat Naples at Anfield and it's settled. If the PSG tie in Serbia, it may also be enough but the case is complicated in terms of calculations.

The top three teams in Group C would be tied with nine points and would be split at the particular confrontations, in a kind of mini-Championship where the scores against the Red Star would be cut off (*).

(*) The advantage of Paris over Liverpool with the particular difference (2-3, 2-1) becomes obsolete from the moment when the two teams can not be alone (Naples will also have 9 pts).

In this little game, the Reds would be the big winners, guaranteed to finish first, with two victories in four matches (against Paris, 3-2, and the one supposed against Naples, December 11). Paris and Naples would have 5 points (one win each against Liverpool and two draws between them, 2-2 in Paris, 1-1 in San Paolo). With a goal difference of 0 for PSG (7 goals for, 7 goals against) who will not move because his last match against the Red Star.

Naples, assuming a defeat in Liverpool, can not do better than 0 goal difference (currently 4 goals scored for 3 conceded). A defeat of the Italians by at least two goals difference would qualify the PSG. A 0-1, 1-2 and 2-3 defeat also for the benefit of the best attack.

Only a defeat of Naples by a goal of difference with at least three goals scored (3-4, 4-5 …) would eject Paris from the first two places. In other words, one point in Serbia is very likely to be enough for the happiness of the Parisians.

The PSG qualified if …

– He beats the Red Star.
– Liverpool does not beat Naples.
– It is a draw and Liverpool beats Naples 1-0, 2-1, 3-2 or at least two goals clear.

Naples qualified if …

– he does not lose.
– he loses by a goal of difference by scoring at least one goal and Paris wins.
– he loses by a goal of difference by scoring at least three goals and Paris draws.
– Paris loses in Belgrade.

Liverpool qualified if …

– he beats Naples 1-0 or by at least two goals away.
– he beats Naples and PSG does not win.

PSG – Liverpool (2-1) in numbers