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The EUR / USD is still locked in its consolidation range pending the US employment report of 14:30.
Yesterday again, the Euro Dollar found support in the area of 1.1320, to go test a break of 1.1400. However, the area of 1.1400 / 1.1420 still remains strong, and caused a further decline.
The busy week in terms of statistics, including the ISM figures, did not make it possible to break the range overall to 1.13-1.14.
Today, hopes are turning to the NFP report, which generally has a greater influence on Forex. However, the influence comes from the impact of employment on the Fed's policy, and the Fed is likely to move towards a further rate hike in December. Only the rhythm of the year 2019 is still under discussion on the markets and within the Fed.
In addition, a much more important and uncertain event for the Euro Dollar awaits the markets next week, with the vote of the British Parliament on the plan of Brexit, Tuesday, December 11.
In this respect, this NFP report in particular should not significantly influence the Fed's monetary policy choices, and thus have a lesser impact on the Forex.
However, the publication should not be underestimated. The volatility could indeed be at the rendezvous in case of strong surprise, especially if it is bad.
There are currently signs of a slowdown in the economy and Fed worries, and an unusually weak US employment report could add worry and weigh on USD on the Forex (EUR rise / USD).
Overall, it will probably take a strong NFP surprise to allow EUR / USD to have an initial reaction on the Forex, but as the weekend and the British vote approach, the pair could miss follow-up afterwards.
As a reminder, the consensus anticipates 200k job creation, after 250k the previous month, for a stable unemployment rate to 3.7%, and expected average hourly wages up + 0.3%, after + 0.2% previously.
Currently, the EUR / USD is trading around 1.1370 on the Forex.
EUR / USD H1 Chart
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