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The natural resources of which the oil resources that abound the African continent represent an important source of currencies for the producing countries which suffered the full blow of the crisis of 2014 – 2016. Follows a real economic slump pushing the most advised to develop ambitious and more or less effective diversification programs, while others persist in all-round oil
More than half of the quantities discovered in recent years have been in Africa, which holds about 10% of reserves oil production, while its production accounts for almost 10% of world production, according to the study "Energy in Africa in 2050", conducted in 2015 by a group of experts from the Association for the Development of in Africa (Adea) and Eurogroup Consulting
But the primary sectors, including hydrocarbons, are rarely considered in A as the fundamentals of true sustainable development. The recent fall in oil prices has had recessive effects in almost all net hydrocarbon-exporting African countries, causing a drop in foreign exchange, a drop in tax revenues, a slowdown in investment and re-indebtedness.
If the African producing countries have suffered and are still suffering from the recent drop in oil prices, it is because they have always had an unhealthy dependence on mono-oil production and their economies still too little or no diversified, "says Mahaman Laouan Gaya, SG of the Organization of African Petroleum Producers. "Today, as in the past, African oil-producing countries should use oil revenues to favor long-term policies favoring sustainable productive investments and not short-sighted clientelist redistribution," advises Phillippe Sébille Lopez, author of the book "Géopolitiques". oil ", in an interview with" La Tribune Afrique ". This disaster management was exposed by the sharp drop in oil prices from 2014 to 2016, which highlighted the high dependence of these countries on oil revenues, pushing some to develop diversification strategies, with mixed results. 19659005] Diversification: two countries stand out
Among the oil producing countries impacted by falling prices, Ghana has been the most remarkable in its strategy of economic diversification. It launched a vast program to promote agriculture, with the introduction of a better system of tax revenue collection, export development and the launch of regional infrastructure.
Alongside Ghana Gabon is one of the oil-producing countries that has made the most progress in terms of economic diversification. After the 2014 crisis that led to the downgrade in 2016, from its rating "Ba3" to "B1", by the US rating agency Moody's, the country has developed an economic diversification plan based mainly on agriculture and the transformation of local products, with notable success: before the fall of prices, oil accounted for 45% of its GDP whereas today its share has fallen to 27%!
Elsewhere, large oil-producing countries Angola, where hydrocarbons account for 95% of exports and contribute up to 70% of tax revenues, have also launched ambitious diversification programs based on the development of the agriculture, fishing and mining sectors. Strongly affected by the oil crisis, the Nigerian giant has put on the table the former plan of diversification, mainly turned to agriculture, but which has difficulty to take.
To the club of the recalcitrants
Nigeria, who has tried diversification programs remains highly dependent on hydrocarbons, like another country: Algeria. Despite the oil crisis that has seriously undermined its economy, Algeria's third largest African producer has signed new contracts between Sonatrach and Italian Eni to explore the open sea and strengthen the oil sector, while the country is full of potential in Renewable energies, agriculture and industry
An identical policy has been adopted by Congo, Chad, Equatorial Guinea or the two Sudans, which have no program of structured economic diversification. The strategy can pay off in the short term as the price of a rising barrel is trading at over $ 70 in mid-May 2018 markets. Also, growth in Africa could reach 6% in 2017 and 8 % in 2018, "if world demand rises sufficiently, if the reforms of the big African economies are carried out smoothly and if oil prices and other raw materials continue to recover," says the economic report on Africa published by the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) united nations in 2017.
Expert Opinion: Mahaman Laouan Gaya, Secretary General of the Organization of African Petroleum Producers (Appo)
In general, he is recognized that Africa's subsoil is rich in extractive and energy resources (oil, gas, uranium, and other mineral resources). Besides the potential for fossil energy resources, we must add that of renewable origins (sun, wind, geothermal, hydro-electricity, biomass, …). In addition, Africa today is populated by nearly one billion inhabitants, 60% of whom are young, while Europe, America and Asia are becoming increasingly "aging". 19659002] If, with all these riches and able-bodied arms, Africa can not take off, I am not sure that the oil resources are the only ones responsible for them or that in the current socio-economic situation challenges of underdevelopment. The causes of the delay and suffocation of Africa are more than in oil. While the prospect of huge revenues from our natural resources may seem intoxicating, it also raises the issue of governance in this sector, a crucial element because almost all our countries, even with abundant extractive and energy have not yet borrowed, far from it, the road of development. Never before have the primary sector and human resources been considered in Africa as the fundamental levers for true sustainable development. A macroeconomic approach has shown that the recent decline in oil prices has had recessive effects in almost all net hydrocarbon-exporting African countries and more modest expansionary effects in other net-importing countries. Only a few countries have seized the opportunity to support their growth in a slightly more diversified economy; if not for the most part they have not been able to stand out from the over-dependence of the oil rent; which made them suffer the sad fate of "Dutch Disease".
Yet, very often mentioned as a solution to increase their resilience, the diversification of the economy and the sources of budgetary revenue is hardly worthwhile. Paradoxically, all the political discourses of recent years revolve around the diversification of economies. With the gradual rise in oil prices, we are very likely to witness yet another postponement of the much-advocated economic diversification policy, until the next crisis, or to recall it only when next election campaigns.
With afrique.latribune.fr
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