Ansd changes base year (Press release)

Press release on the change of national accounts base year

ANSD has just set up a new base year of the national accounts of Senegal in the context of the renovation project National Accounts (PRCN). The new base year 2014, which replaces that of 1999, is established in accordance with the latest United Nations National Accounts Manual (SNA 2008). In addition to conceptual changes, the new baseline incorporates methodological changes as well as new sources of data to improve GDP coverage and update data on the structure of the economy. The various changes brought a revision of 29.4% of GDP in 2014.

This note to the press describes, in a summary way, the main reasons for the recasting of the national accounts, the approach that was adopted, the various changes made and gives some salient results

1. Why a change in the national accounts base year?

The national accounts are an essential component of the national statistical information system. They are developed with reference to the System of National Accounts (SNA), adopted by the United Nations Statistical Commission, which sets out concepts and definitions, nomenclatures, valuation methods and the various accounts to be produced.

The national accounts provide a synthetic and coherent description of the economy. In particular, they make it possible to determine the gross domestic product (GDP) and to have indicators of evolution to measure the performance of the national economy over time.

The national accounts are established, from a base year which is generally the reference year for macroeconomic aggregates. However, as the base year ages, the quality of the accounts deteriorates. It thus becomes imperative to renew it to better understand the changes affecting the structures of the economy. In general, there are several reasons for changing the base year of national accounts:

• the first reason is conceptual or methodological. This is to take into account the new features of the latest System of National Accounts adopted by the United Nations (the 2008 SNA) as well as the new national and international classifications of activities and products, involving the reconstitution of a series of accounts. the second reason is the structural change in economic activity, due to the appearance of new activities and new products or the disappearance of others, to changes in consumption habits. production and marketing and the substantial change in the quality of the products;
• the third motivation is the concern to improve the quality of the national accounts, degraded by the remoteness of the base year. Indeed, the errors on the annual evolutions can accumulate and the methodological choices or the arbitrations carried out on the base year can prove to be inappropriate and less relevant for the current years, helping to alter the series of accounts.

Thus , the change in the base year of the national accounts of Senegal is in line with the country's willingness to follow the trend initiated at the continental level for the implementation of the 2008 SNA, as in countries like Africa. South, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco and Nigeria. Thus, the transition to a new base year makes it possible to strengthen the quality of national accounts, in particular with the improvement of coverage and the updating of the structure of the economy.

1. Implementation of the Project

The National Accounts Change of National Accounts Change Project of Senegal was established by Order No. 12877 of 22 June 2015 of the Minister of the Economy, Finance and Trade. plan (MEFP). Thus, a Steering Committee has been set up consisting of the Directors General (or their representatives) of the MEFP, APIX and ADEPME, the BCEAO National Directorate for Senegal, members of the System National Statistics (SSN), employers' representatives, research institutes in economics and technical and financial partners.

The implementation of the activities of the National Accounts Renovation Project has been entrusted to a Management Unit co-ordinated by the Director of Economic Statistics and National Accounts of ANSD. The work took place over a period of nearly two years and involved some thirty economist / statisticians. The year 2014 was chosen as the new national accounts base and is to replace the 1999 base.

The Project benefited from technical assistance from the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), the Economic and Statistical Observatory of Sub-Saharan Africa (AFRISTAT) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as well as financial support from the Delegation of the European Union to Senegal.

1. Main changes introduced in the 2014 base

The main changes introduced in the new national accounts database are:

3.1 The use of new sources of information

These are mainly: [19659010] of the General Census of Enterprises (RGE) which includes a survey on the structure of production costs;

of the National Survey of Employment in Senegal (ENES 2015)

of the Survey "Listening to Senegal "(L2S) which provides data on household consumption by product, for the year 2014;

of the National Survey of Informal Production Units in Senegal (ENUPIS) carried out in 2016;

regular agricultural surveys carried out by the Directorate of Analysis, Forecasting and Agricultural Statistics (DAPSA) of the Ministry of Agriculture;

surveys carried out in the framework of the development of satellite accounts for fisheries in Senegal in 2015.

different sources of administrative data (balance of payments, public finance statistics, customs statistics, landings of artisanal and industrial fisheries; controlled production of forest products; livestock numbers, mining production statistics, business records, etc.).

1. 1. 3.2. Taking into account certain new features of the 2008 SNA

ANSD took advantage of the change in the national accounts base year to introduce some of the 2008 SNA recommendations relevant to the economy Senegalese. This includes the consideration:

• of expenditure on R & D as investment and no longer as intermediate consumption, which leads to raising the level of GDP;
• the new mode of calculation and distribution of the indirectly measured financial intermediation service (FISIM) according to the beneficiary (in intermediate consumption, final consumption or export);
• the method of calculating the Central Bank's production and non-financial insurance; life.

1. 1. The adoption of a new classification of activities and products

To take into account the changes in the structure of the economy and the information needs of users as well as the revision of classifications in force in Afristat member countries, changes have been made to the classifications used to classify activities and products. As an illustration, all activities related to information and communication technologies have been grouped together in a branch called "Information and Communication". Previously, they were scattered in several branches, not allowing to have a good visibility

1. Results obtained

At the end of the work, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stood at CFAF 9,775 billion, an increase of 29.4%, compared to its 2014 level evaluated according to the former base 1999 . This fairly substantial increase is mainly due to an improvement in the coverage of economic activity, particularly with the completion of the General Census of Enterprises (GEM), the best consideration of activities such as mining exploration, inland fisheries and the United States. aquaculture, rural water supply and the implementation of the changes introduced by the SNA 2008.

Notwithstanding the level of foreign trade, all aggregates have undergone upward revisions. In this respect, final consumption and investment increased respectively by 21.5% and 18.9%, compared with the base 99.

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	SCN 1993 19659049] MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS	Accounts 2014 (base 99)	[19459] New base 2014	Absolute variation	relative variation
Aggregates (millet) CFA francs)
[Not available] GDP at market prices	7 555	9,775	2,220	29.4%
[Ann Effective final consumption	7 160 [1949] 59026]	8,700	1 540	21.5%
Gross fixed capital formation	1 931	2,295	364	18.9%
[1949] 59035] Exports of Goods and Services	2 124	2 129
Imports of Goods and Services	3,573	3,584
Aggregates per capita [1
GDP (1000FCFA) ) [1945904]	542	702
GDP (USdollar)	1 099	[1945900] 6] 1 422	323

In terms of structure by sector, the weight of the tertiary increased from 52.7% to 54.0% compared to the results of the 2014 national accounts base 1999. The preponderance of this sector is notably reinforced by the inclusion of Research & Development (R & D) products. in the tertiary. On the other hand, the weights of primary and secondary activities remained almost stable.

On the other hand, the weight of taxes fell to 9.9% of GDP against 12.8% in the former base, due to a higher revaluation of GDP. 19659039]

In addition, the change of base year allowed to have a new structure of the economy. In fact, inputs entering the production process are updated for all industries. As a result, products such as electricity and telecommunication services are gaining momentum in the expense of production units.

1. Some consequences of the change of the base year

The monitoring of the countries' performance is essentially based on the analysis of specific indicators such as GDP per capita, the overall fiscal deficit, the tax burden, the opening rate, the debt ratio. All these indicators are defined in relation to GDP.

Thus, a change in the level of GDP has a direct impact on the level of these indicators. To this end, the increase in GDP improves Senegal's ranking on the WAEMU convergence criteria for the budget deficit set at 3% of GDP. On the other hand, it degrades its performance according to the indicator on the tax burden. Ultimately, the change of base year will provide a good reference for the evaluation of the economic policies implemented by the Government.

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[Ann

Indicators of Convergence	2014 (Previously Established 1999)	2014
Overall Budget Balance / GDP	-5.08%	-3.93%
Current account balance / GDP	-8.81%	-6.81%
Rate of tax pressure (tax revenue excluding ESF / GDP) [1 9459004]	19.62%	15.17%
Debt ratio (public debts / GDP)	54.44%	42.08%