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World trade is expected to continue to grow at a decent rate in the short term On a longer horizon, a club of African countries composed of Morocco, South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and Angola are expected to stand out, with additional Moroccan exports estimated at $ 50 billion by 2030.
Trade tensions between the United States and China have weighed on the markets in the first half of the year and continue to influence stock market behavior, but the likelihood of a clash between the two world powers would be very low according to several observers.
Behind these pressures, the insurance group credit Euler Hermes is divided between commercial poker and commercial dispute.The assumption of a clash represents only 5% of the scenario of the credit insurer who presented yesterday, Wednesday, July 4, its new macroeconomic forecast.
A confrontation between the United States and China does not help any of the two parties, knowing that the protectionist ambitions of the Trump administration also target products imported from Europe, in particular cars. Beyond the shock that a trade conflict would cause on world trade, it would cost 1.7 point of growth in the United States, predicts Euler Hermes.
China would limit the damage to 1 point. On the other hand, Europe would be the biggest loser since the impact on growth is estimated at 1.9 points. The emerging economies, they would be plunged into a general recession according to the assumptions of the economists of the credit insurer.
If we limit ourselves to the commercial poker, the consequences on the world trade and the performances of the protagonist countries would be negligible . Moreover, trade flows around the world should continue to grow at a good pace according to the latest forecasts.
The rise in oil prices will relieve countries such as Nigeria and Angola emerging from two difficult years, the recovery of activity in South Africa should also support the continent's growth in the short term.Morocco is credited with 3% in 2018 and 2019 [19659003] The growth would be 4.1% (in volume) in 2018 and 3.7% next year.On the African markets and over a longer period, a country club composed of Morocco, the South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and Angola should stand out.
Morocco's additional demand is expected to reach $ 50 billion by 2030, according to Euler Hermes forecasts. (associated with low risk) with the credit insurer just like Ghana and Botswana. These three economies hold the best scores on the continent.
Morocco's growth will be 3% in 2018 and will be similar in 2019. The regional average is estimated at 3.6% and 3.9% for the entire region. The rise in oil prices will relieve countries like Nigeria and Angola coming out of two difficult years.
Globally, activity would grow by 3.3% after 3, 2% in 2017. If the momentum remains positive, "the engines of the global economy will be out of sync this year. US growth should accelerate as a slowdown is expected in Europe and China, "warn Euler Hermes economists.
The rise of protectionism, the tightening of monetary policy of central banks and an inflationary shock could alter the current cycle of growth.
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