Country risk: Morocco in the top 3 African

Commercial poker played by the United States and China is not expected to have a major impact on world trade This is the conclusion that The Economist draws, based in its July 5 edition, on Euler's new macroeconomic forecasts. Hermes. "Trade flows around the world are expected to continue to grow at a good pace according to the latest forecasts. The growth would be 4.1% (in volume) in 2018 and 3.7% next year, "notes the daily.

The effect will also be felt on African markets, on Morocco, South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and Angola should distinguish themselves. "Morocco is expected to capture € 50 billion in additional demand by 2030. This explains why – be the maintenance of its rating B1, associated with a low risk with the credit insurer.It is the same for Ghana and Botswana.The three countries are the best students on the continent.Claring the forecasts of the insurer -credit, the newspaper reports that "Moroccan growth would be 3% in 2018 and will be the same in 2019." This remains slightly below the regional average (between 3.6 and 3.9% in 2018).

However, if the commercial poker between the first two world powers becomes a conflict, the effect on global growth may be important. It "would cost 1.7 points of growth in the United States, predicts Euler Hermes.China would limit the damage to 1 point.In contrast, Europe would be the main loser, since the impact on growth is estimated at 1, The emerging economies would be plunged into a generalized recession. "

And even if the growth momentum remains positive," the drivers of the global economy could be out of sync this year. US should accelerate, while a slowdown is expected in Europe and China. "

That being said, the newspaper reassures itself by saying that the probability of a clash between the first two world powers remains very low.