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The exits of the High Commissioner for the Plan often annoy some of the officials. The latest should not derogate from the rule: criticism of the obsession of the authorities for macroeconomic balances, recommendations of international institutions like the IMF, alert on the rigidity of the structure of the Moroccan economy and low performance investments … He calls for the adoption of a model of "economic nationalism". Back on his salient messages
Ahmed Lahlimi, High Commissioner for the Plan, drew, on July 9, a gloomy outlook for the Moroccan economy in 2019, with a projected slowdown in growth and an expected rise in unemployment. 19659003] He took the opportunity to launch, once again, strong messages, addressed in particular to the public authorities. "All of this, we've said it many times, and I've even wondered if I should not be presenting the 2019 forecast without saying more, so I'm wondering if it's uninteresting or not not to be said, "he said in the middle of his intervention.
Dependence of rainfall is not sustainable
The HCP predicts for 2019 an economic growth of 2.9%, after 3.1% estimated for 2018 and 4.1% in 2017 A slowdown due to the decline in the growth of the value added of the primary sector, after two good agricultural seasons, not compensated by the slow recovery of non-agricultural activities
According to the High Commissioner for Planning, "we must stop to make an assessment of the economic situation and see what to do, especially since the international situation is relatively favorable, we can not remain dependent on This is not sustainable. "
For Ahmed Lahlimi, restoring the macroeconomic equilibrium is good, but we can not be satisfied . We must go further. "We must ask the right questions and make the necessary reforms."
Without denying the efforts undertaken by Morocco in several areas, Lahlimi nevertheless raises questions about the priorities of the public authorities and calls for vigilance .
For him, the restoration of equilibrium can be broken at any moment because of the international situation and, indeed, of the Moroccan economic model based on domestic demand which is running out of steam and which is largely satisfied.
Moreover, public debt, which is already at a critical level, is expected to rise again this year.
What is essential for the HCP is accelerating the transformation of the structures of the economy
"Morocco can produce a lot of competitive products, but it does not. However, the structure of production does not only influence the level of production but also the level of social inequality .
"It's good to make cars, give foreign investors land and benefits. But we need to make complementary products to create a dynamic and improve the competitiveness of the productive fabric, "says Lahlimi.
Moreover," the production does not have enough technological content and does not create enough skilled jobs
The structure of Moroccan production has not changed in 20 years
For the HCP, the reforms must not be apprehended on the basis of macroeconomic balances, which may vary each year, but on the basis of the structural data of the economy and society
"The structure of Moroccan production has not changed in 20 years. The weight of industry has remained the same, agriculture remains volatile. "
The institution focuses on two indicators to show the slowing of the model followed by Morocco:
– Investment (gross fixed capital formation – GFCF) evolved as an annual average of 7.1% between 2000 and 2007, 4.3% between 2008 and 2012, and 1.2% between 2013 and 2017
– Household consumption evolved as an annual average of 3.3%, 5.8%, and 2.3% over the same period.
For Lahlimi, "these data basic, substantive, structural should lead us to think. "
" Morocco has made efforts, tried to invest and mobilize its own resources and even foreign resources. "
" Citizens and companies have made a lot of effort. Morocco's tax burden is among the highest in the developing world . Social deductions are also high.
According to him, the problem lies in the use of these resources . "Have we invested in the right sectors, have we found the right balance between infrastructure and production, have we invested properly in education and training? health? "
" There is a problem of resource management. Steps must be taken to improve governance and return on investments. We can not get good results in terms of growth when the investment base is fragile. "
Which reforms to carry out, which recommendations to follow?
Lahlimi recommends to make a thorough study "Morocco-Morocco" of the structural situation of Morocco but also of the evolution of the world economy
"The world is changing at a rapid pace, we can no longer remain dependent on the IMF's analyzes and recommendations have been repeating and resembling each other for 50 years
"Technologies are evolving rapidly, the world has arrived today with artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, the economy of platforms, crypto-actives …
"These technologies revolutionize all fields: production, communication, commerce, finance, education, health …"
On the other hand, "globalization as we knew her changed . The great powers return to interventionism . Protectionism is coming back strongly and the involvement of states in production and technological development to get ahead of others is becoming stronger. Geopolitics is also constantly changing. "
For all this, Ahmed Lahlimi, who claims to be a bearer of nationalist and progressive values, says that" we must be strict towards ourselves. It takes a return to oneself, which does not mean isolation. We must remain open to the world and universal values. But one must be strict in the analysis of the situation and develop a strategic vision in which will participate the Democrats of all stripes. "
" We must fix a national economic model that wants to be a model of economic nationalism
"The world changes, we have to change with it. If it is not done voluntarily, it will be constrained with the choices of others, "concludes the HCP boss.
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