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The Euler Hermes economists presented their macroeconomic forecasts for the regions on Wednesday (July 4th): USA, EU, Asia, Latin America and Africa. 19659003] For the credit insurance company, world economic growth should accelerate in 2018 to + 3.3%, against + 3.2% in 2017.
The risk of commercial war between the USA and the China, because of the protectionist measures taken by Trump, is only 5%, according to Euler Hermes, who prefers to talk about commercial poker. Indeed, a trade conflict between the two world powers would lose 1.7 points of growth in the United States, 1 point to China and 1.9 point to Europe, which makes this scenario unlikely. The choice of commercial poker would have a limited impact on inflation in the US and a negligible impact on world trade.
For its part, after posting the strongest growth in 10 years in 2017, the European economy should slow down in 2018 and 2019 at + 2.1% and + 1.9% respectively. It will, however, remain above its pre-crisis average.
In Africa, Euler Hermes' economists are seeing growth accelerating to + 3.9% in 2018 and + 4.3% in 2019 (vs. 3.4% in 2017). This should benefit more countries in 2018.
Two countries stand out with low risk (B1) and the best ratings of the Continent: Morocco in the North (with growth forecast at + 3%) in 2018 and Ghana in the West.
The recent rise in commodity prices is expected to have a stabilizing influence for the region as a whole, with notably an expected strengthening in Nigeria (+ 2.5% in 2018 against 0, 8 in 2017) and also in South Africa (+ 2% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019). Infrastructure projects (hydroelectric dams, ports, roads, rails) remain legion, especially in East Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya) or West Africa (Cote d'Ivoire, Senegal). For Euler Hermes, the problem is not growth itself, but it is the way in which these projects are financed which can pose problems and lead to situations of overindebtedness.
According to analysts, international trade constitutes a major development opportunity for Africa. Most of the signed free trade agreements have been ratified. Thus, in Morocco, the additional exports should reach 50 billion dollars by 2030.
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