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International economic situation in 2018 and 2019
The happy agreement, noted in the note of presentation of the 2016 exploratory economic budget, of the growth cycles of all major global economic groupings, should be confirmed in 2018 and 2019 and print to the world economy a growth forecast at 3.8%, after 3.2% in 2016 and 3.4% in 2015.
Aggressive tax policies and monetary, soon accompanied by a selective protectionism, carried out under the emblem of "America First" gave back to the American economic cycle, after having known the age of maturity, a vigor that did not destine him his life expectancy
The euro zone for its part, thanks to domestic demand boosted by policies to support household consumption and private investment and by Structural economic and social reforms with the continuation of the ECB's accommodating monetary policy should point to a return to growth rates from the pre-crisis to 2.1% in 2018, slowing down to 1.7% in 2019 under the international effects of trade protectionism and the gradual tightening of US monetary policy.
In emerging and developing countries, aggregate growth is expected to benefit from the recovery in commodity exports and from 4 , 3% in 2017 to 4.5% in 2018 and 4.7% in 2019.
In this context, the Chinese economy, of continental dimension, continues to ensure, within the framework of a controlled opening, to its development model access to international competitiveness, to its population a gradual consumption of mass and to its growth of the foundations of sustainability. It should, however, experience a slight decline from 6.9% in 2017 to 6.5% in 2018 and 6.3% in 2019, under the effect of a slow moderation of its fiscal and monetary policy.
The Indian economy is expected to grow by 7.3 percent in 2018 and 7.5 percent in 2019, as structural reforms continue to increase productivity and encourage private investment. [19659004] The Russian Republic, for its part, should see a return to growth, with 1.5% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019, as a result of the resumption of oil exports, the easing of monetary policy and renewed confidence on the part of investors
Overall, the period 2018-2019 should globally enjoy sustained global growth, including the demand addressed in particular to our country which should go from 4, 6% in 2017 to 4.8% in 2018 and 4% in 2019. The world economy However, it should remain subject to the uncertainties associated with the foreseeable increase in oil prices and interest rates, in a context of exacerbation of declared or latent geostrategic conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and Asia, and proliferation of hotbeds of terrorism throughout the world, particularly in Africa
Under these conditions, the volume of world trade, already undergoing a structural reduction in its growth rate, should increase from 4.8% in 2017 to 4, 3% in 2018 and 4.2% in 2019.
National economic situation in 2018 and 2019
Thanks to an atypical rainfall distribution over time and balanced in space, Morocco has benefited from one of its best agricultural campaigns, driven by the high yield of cereals and a good orientation of its classic crops including market garden and arboreal, with however a relative decline of growth rate of livestock activities.
With a more sustained activity in marine fisheries, the value added of the primary sector, after having increased by 13.2% in 2017, should see a moderate increase of 3 , 1% in 2018 and a decline of 0.3% in 2019. Its contribution to GDP would be zero in 2019, instead of 0.4 point in 2018, after being 1.6 points in 2017.
Non-agricultural activities should continue their upward trend to 3.1% in 2018 and 3.2% in 2019, after 2.8% in 2017, benefiting from the traditional activities of the secondary sector, particularly industrial and mining, and one sector. tertiary sector, whose growth should increase from 2.7% in 2017 to 3.1% in 2018 and 2019, benefiting in particular from renewed dynamism in the tourism sector.
Overall, GDP should increase in volume 3.1% in 2018 and 2.9% in 2019, after 4.1% achieved in 2017, in a context where the unemployment rate is unlikely to improve and where domestic inflation is expected to be 1.7% in 2018 and 1.3% in 2019, double what it was in 2017.
In total, domestic demand to drive economic growth, at a time when net external demand should again contribute negatively to growth, despite the expected improvement in world demand for Morocco.
Domestic demand should record an increase of 3.5% in 2018 and 2.9% in 2019, with a contribution to growth respectively of 3.8 points in 2018 and 3.2 points in 2019.
Final consumption of households, with growth of 3.3% respectively and 3.4%, would continue to improve in 2018 and 2019, benefiting from improved farm incomes and the consolidation of growth in non-agricultural activities.
Government consumption is expected to increase between two years 1.8%, after 1.5% in 2017.
Gross fixed capital formation, for its part, would continue to be supported by the continuation of infrastructure programs and the relative recovery of industrial activities. It is expected to increase in volume by 5.6% in 2018 and 3.6% in 2019, after a drop of 0.8% in 2017. Its contribution to economic growth, after having been negative in 2017, should to improve by 1.6 points and one point respectively over the two years.
External demand, on the other hand, is expected to contribute a negative contribution to GDP growth of 0.7 point in 2018 and 0.3 percentage point in 2019, after a positive contribution of 0.5 point in 2017.
Exports of goods and services are expected to increase by 6.9% in 2018 and 2019, down from 10.9% in 2017.
Imports are expected to decline in volume growth from 7.4% in 2017 to 7.1% in 2018 and 6.2% in 2019.
In terms of financing, the national economy would continue to experience an increase in financing requirements.
Domestic savings, given an increase in GDP at current prices of 4.8% and an increase in final consumption of 5.3% would be in the order of 22.8% of GDP in 2018 and 22.6% in 2019, after 23%, 1% in 2017.
National savings, with net revenues from the Rest of the World, estimated in 2018 at 5.9% of GDP, would be 28.7% of GDP in 2018 and 2019, after 28.9% in 2017.
The investment effort representing 32.8% of GDP in 2018 and 32.5% in 2019, instead of 32.6% in 2017.
Consequently, the need financing will be 3.9% in 2018 and 3.6% in 2019, which our country must cover through the use of indebtedness.
Under these conditions, the overall public debt of the economy would be 82 , 6% of GDP in 2018 and 82.9% in 2019, instead of 82% in 2017.
In conclusion, over the next two years, Morocco, unless there are major contingencies, will have a favorable international environment and will have to take the opportunity to better value its assets and lift its constraints Management and its proven and latent structural deficits
In terms of macroeconomic equilibrium, Morocco has made undeniable efforts in recent years, even though vigilance should remain de rigueur. Investment has returned to the strength it has enjoyed since the 2000s. Household consumption has maintained a relative stability in its post-crisis growth rate in 2008. The inflation rate has remained rather low, after a period of fears of a deflationary threat. The fiscal deficit declined from 6.8% of GDP in 2012 to almost 3.4% in 2017, although it is expected to increase slightly in 2018 and 2019. The current account deficit of the balance of payments has, for its part, it fell from 9.5% of GDP in 2012 to 3.6% in 2017 and 4.1% in 2018. Public debt, after an alarming increase between 2010 and 2014, stabilized relatively the period 2015-2018.
However real and positive they may be, these macroeconomic performances are, however, part of a rather weak economic growth still subject, even to a lesser degree, to rainfall risks with a low technology and export capacity offer, little job creation and little contribution to the reduction of social and territorial inequalities.
Morocco has certainly spared no effort to faced with the demands of growth over the and greater employability of its human resources. Since 2000, it has been able to mobilize its own resources and those of external origin due to its economic potential and its geographical, historical and institutional assets, and devote a growing share of its GDP to particularly in economic and social infrastructures and the improvement of the living conditions of its population. Its contribution to these efforts has, moreover, been widely solicited, particularly with reference to the level of fiscal pressure, which remains among the highest in emerging and developing countries and is close to that of developed nations. The share of contributions in income remains, according to World Bank data, significantly higher than that of middle-income countries and all countries of North Africa and the Middle East. [19659004] Thus, it seems that, given the level of national wealth and the potential for resource mobilization that it allows for the efforts of the country and its people, it could lead to better returns, as we have seen. demonstrate with regard to the sectoral allocation and management of investment programs, or the use of funds, particularly public funds, allocated to the education and training sector. This should not exempt the country from taking stock of its structural deficits and the strong national obligation to carry out the fundamental reforms in order to begin to reverse them.
Structural reforms can not be evaluated or even less justified by reference only to macroeconomic performance. Only an analysis, in a forward-looking approach, of the structural data of the national economic and social reality on the one hand and the international geoeconomic and geopolitical data on the other hand should base the relevance and the security of the effects of any structural reform decision. . This obviousness is all the more important since the international context is experiencing a process of shattering all the conventional knowledge brought about by the triumphant globalization of the 1980s and the orthodoxies of economic, financial and social management which have become the bible of the councils. even injunctions to which the developing countries have been subjected for 50 years
For 50 years the world has changed. The permanent revolution in artificial intelligence technologies, the Internet of Things, 3D printing, the development of the platform economy, the limitless expansion of the complexity of logarithms and the capacity of the tools of calculation, imparting connectivity to the economies of today's and tomorrow's developed countries, the size and consequences of which profoundly alter the data of globalization. The exponential needs of financing that such revolutions constantly create today give a new dimension to international relations, in the race of different powers to grab the most assets in this area. In this frantic competition, a new era of globalization is coming. After defeating the free movement of people, European groups, American alliances break out in a dynamic of questioning the freedom of movement of goods and services long subjected to customs restrictions that do not say their name. [19659004ItisinthiscontextthatwemustanalyzethetaxdevaluationandtradeprotectionismmeasuresoftheUnitedStatesordissensionsthataffectthelargesteconomicgroupthatistheEuropeanUnionItisalsointhiscontextthatwemustponderthestrengthsofChina'sdevelopmentmodelinsuchcomplexcontextsOfcontinentaldimensioncertainlybutdeterminedtoaccumulatewithintheframeworkofacontrolledopeningcompetitiveadvantagesinthemostsophisticatedfieldsofscientificresearchofthedigitaleconomyandtheartificialintelligencewhileensuringthelaccesstostrategicrawmaterialsandthemostpromisingmarketsaroundtheworldandinparticularindevelopingcountriesInparticularwemustponderthefineandrealisticassessmentthatithasbeenabletomakeoftheadvantagesandtherisksofglobalizationtocontinuemasteringtheindispensabletoolstorealizethestructuraltransformationsofitseconomyandaccesstonewsourcesofcompetitivenessandprofitoftomorrowInthecontextoftheinternationaltradewarthattheworldisbeginningtoexperienceithasbeenabletousethesafeguardofitsfreedomtouseitsexchangeratesystemtoprotectitselfagainsttheaggressivemeasuresoftheUnitedStatesagainstitsexportsThemainlessontobedrawnfromthisisthattheexchangerateisnotamerefinancialvariablebutatoolofeconomicpolicy
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