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By 2022, more IP traffic will be created on global networks than on all 32 years of Internet life today. This rather surprising prediction comes from the Cisco network infrastructure specialist, who estimates that by 2022, 60% of the world's population will be made up of Internet users. More than 28 billion devices and connections will be online and the video will account for 82% of all IP traffic.
The size and complexity of the Internet continues to grow in an unimaginable way. Since the launch of the VNI forecast in 2005, traffic has increased 56-fold, with a compound annual growth rate of 36%, with more people, devices and applications accessing IP networks, said Jonathan Davidson, Vice-President. Director and General Manager of Cisco. Global service providers are working to transform their networks to better manage and deliver traffic, while offering high-end experiences. Our ongoing research allows us to obtain and share valuable information on the technological and architectural transitions that our clients must make to succeed.
Cisco expects, among other things, that more than half of all devices and connections become machine-based by 2022, an increase of 34% over 2017. This represents 14.6 billion connections from loudspeakers, fixtures, peripherals and everything else, compared to 6.1% currently.
Video traffic is expected to quadruple by 2022 and gaming traffic should be multiplied by nine to account for four percent of overall IP traffic. Traffic in virtual reality and growth will also know a boom and will reach 4.02 exabytes / month, against 0.33 exabytes / month in 2017.
At the same time as increasing traffic, Cisco also expects the overall average broadband fixed bit rate to almost double, from 39.0 Mbps to 75.4 Mbps. The average Wi-Fi connection speeds will more than double by 24.4 Mbps 54.0 Mbps, and the average mobile connection speeds more than triple by 8.7 Mbps 28.5 Mbps.
Projections of global traffic
Annual global IP traffic will reach 4.8 ZB per year by 2022, or 396 exabytes (EB) per month. In 2017, the annual growth rate of global IP traffic was 1.5 ZB per year, or 122 EB per month.
Global IP traffic will be tripled over the next 5 years. Overall, IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 26% between 2017 and 2022. Monthly IP traffic will reach 50 GB per capita by 2022, up from 16 GB in 2017.
Internet traffic at busy times is growing faster than average Internet traffic. Peak hours (or the busiest 60-minute period of the day), Internet traffic will be multiplied by 4.8 between 2017 and 2022 and average Internet traffic by 3.7.
Global Internet users and devices / Connections
The number of devices connected to IP networks will be more than three times the world's population by 2022. There will be 3.6 networked devices per capita by 2022, compared to 2.4 networked devices per capita in 2017 There will be 28.5 billion devices in the network by 2022, compared to 18 billion in 2017.
M2M connections will account for more than half of global connected equipment and connections by 2022. The share of M2M connections will increase from 34% in 2017 to 51% by 2022. There will be 14.6 billion M2M connections from here 2022.
Smartphone traffic will outpace PC traffic. In 2018, personal computers accounted for 41% of total IP traffic, but in 2022, personal computers will account for only 19% of IP traffic. Smartphones will account for 44% of total IP traffic in 2022, up from 18% in 2017.
Global Trends in Network Access and Connectivity (Fixed / Mobile / Wi-Fi)
Wireless and mobile device traffic will account for 71% of total IP traffic in 2022. By 2022, wireline devices will account for 29% of IP traffic, and Wi-Fi and mobile devices will account for 71% of IP traffic. Also in 2017, cbls accounted for less than half of global IP traffic, at 48%.
Globally, mobile data traffic will increase sevenfold between 2017 and 2022. Mobile data traffic will increase by 46% between 2017 and 2022, reaching 77.5 exabytes per month by 2022.
Global mobile data traffic will grow almost twice as fast as fixed IP traffic between 2017 and 2022. Fixed IP traffic will increase by 24% between 2017 and 2022, while mobile traffic will increase by 46%. Global mobile data traffic accounted for 9% of total IP traffic in 2017 and will account for 20% of total IP traffic in 2022.
Overall trends in application
Globally, IP video traffic will account for 82% of all IP traffic (both professional and consumer) by 2022, up from 75% in 2017. Global IP video traffic will be multiplied by four between 2017 and 2022 a CAGR of 29%. Internet video traffic is expected to quadruple by 2017-2022, a CAGR of 33%.
Live video on the Internet will account for 17% of video traffic on the Internet by 2022. The live video will be multiplied by 15 between 2017 and 2022.
Video surveillance traffic on the Internet will increase sevenfold between 2017 and 2022. Worldwide, 3% of Internet video traffic will be video surveillance by 2022, compared to 2% in 2017.
Virtual reality (VR) and reality (RA) traffic will increase by 12 times between 2017 and 2022 worldwide, a CAGR of 65%.
Video on the Internet will triple between 2017 and 2022. Video Internet TV will account for 27% of Internet video traffic of fixed consumers by 2022.
Public demand video (VoD) traffic will almost double by 2022. The volume of VoD traffic by 2022 will be equivalent to 10 billion DVDs per month.
Internet gaming traffic will be multiplied by nine between 2017 and 2022, a CAGR of 55%. Globally, Internet gaming traffic will account for 4% of global IP traffic by 2022, up from 1% in 2017.
Overall performance of the network
Broadband speeds will almost double by 2022. By 2022, broadband fixed broadband will reach 75.4 Mbps, up from 39 Mbps in 2017.
Global traffic topology
Content delivery networks (CDNs) carry 72% of Internet traffic by 2022, up from 56% in 2017.
Thirty-three percent of the service provider network capacity will be in a metro network by 2022, up from 27 percent in 2017.
Highlights of the global mobile phone 5G
5G devices and connections will account for more than 3% of global devices and mobile connections by 2022. By 2022, global mobile devices will grow from 8.6 billion in 2017 to 12.3 billion by 2022 – of which 422 million will be compatible with 5G .
Nearly 12 percent of global mobile traffic will use 5G cell connectivity by 2022. Globally, the average 5G connection will generate 21 GB of traffic per month by 2022.
Source: Cisco
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