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(AOF) – Down 8% to 47.84 euros, Rubis accuses the largest decline in the SBF 120. Exane BNP Paribas downgraded its opinion on underperforming Ruby Surperformance and lowered its price target. 65 to 47 euros. After three years of rising earnings, the broker fears a reversal of trend due to headwinds that blow in the storage (Rubis Terminal) and the exposure, certainly reduced, the group in Iran. According to the consulting firm, the consensus is 8% too high while the action has fallen by 10% since the beginning of the year.
The valuation is however too high: + 25% compared to the historical average.
AOF – TO KNOW MORE
The strengths of the value [19659002] – French leader in the storage of fuel oil and LPG (15% of the national market) and the distribution of LPG (5% of the market);
– Remarkable growth history;
– High diversity of outlets, oriented towards primary needs (heating, transport …) less sensitive to the economic situation;
– Group weighing € 3 billion in turnover organized in 3 branches: energy for 3/4, storage for 10%, and supports and services for the rest;
– For five years, activity development in the Caribbean (more than half of the volumes) and in Africa (South Africa, Madagascar, Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal … ie 1 / 5th), the share of Europe (Germany, Spain, France Netherlands, Switzerland and Turkey) s'érod less than 30%;
– Good expertise in external growth:
– oriented since the end of 2014 on the Caribbean with the acquisitions of refineries Sara in Martinique and SRPP in Reunion then Bermuda Gas in Bermuda and Dinasa in Haiti;
– and, since 2015, to Africa with the purchase of logistician Eres, operator in Nigeria, Senegal and Togo, and Total's assets in Djibouti and those of Reatile in southern Africa;
– Resilient business model, 60% of billings from contracts adjusted for gross price movements and maintaining a constant margin rate;
– Very healthy financial structure.
Weaknesses in value
– State regulation of prices and margins in the DOM-TOM,
– Operational profitability in the storage -2/3 of profits of the group – still below its historical levels;
– Disappointment in distribution in Europe and in Jamaica;
– Value close to its historical highs.
How to track value
– Value of both growth and yield;
– Sensitivity during from oil and gas, to climatic conditions for the distribution activity, to the social climate in the French West Indies and to the political and economic situation in Africa and Turkey
– Growth driven by structural factors in the oil industry : Increasing complexity of logistics, increased regulation of storage standards and trend of sales by majors;
– Continued external growth, particularly in Turkey;
– Confirmation of adjustment to be confirmed of the Nigerian subsidiary Eres;
– Capitalized value but not operable, due to the presence of general partners and managers (2.01% of capital only).
Utilities
As a result of mergers and acquisitions, the global utilities sector is in the process of being reconfigured. According to a study by AT Kearney, 1040 such transactions were announced worldwide in 2016, for a total of $ 329 billion, a record amount in value. AT Kearney believes that the market is benefiting first from asset disposals by major European energy companies
As PwC Consulting and Audit firm points out, 2016 was a record year for mergers and acquisitions in energy: nearly 300 billion dollars, up 47% compared to 2015. And indeed Europe played a key role in this acceleration because transactions on this continent jumped 25%, to 49 billion dollars. In France, 45 mergers and acquisitions were recorded in 2016, for a total value of $ 5.4 billion. The acquisition of a minority interest in CNP Assurances and Caisse des Dépôts (CDC) in EDF's Electricity Transmission System (RTE), for $ 4.6 billion, outperformed all others. [19659030]
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