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(Agence Ecofin) – The international rating agency Standard & Poor's (S & P) published last week a new report giving a B + / B rating to Benin. This new score, which represents a slight increase compared to the B / B rating given to the country in 2012, is mainly due to the economic reforms initiated by the government of President Patrice Talon.
The authors of the report indicate that " the proactive approach "of the government in place, to improve the business climate and strengthen public governance was the main factor explaining this new rating.
Thus, the establishment of a policy of privatization of the management of the main lungs of the economy, namely the cotton sector and the autonomous port of Cotonou (whose management has been entrusted for a few months to the Belgian port of Antwerp, Ed.), makes it possible to count on rather optimistic prospects for the country. The economic dynamism shown by these key sectors in recent years should be reinforced; which, coupled with an increase in public and private investment, is expected to generate economic growth of 6.3% between 2018 and 2021.
However, while it is true that this rating is undeniably a progress, it does not It is no less true that Benin's greatest economic difficulties are far from settled, as the country remains in the "very speculative" category of the S & P scorecard. According to the agency, several factors could also hinder growth and development as hoped by the West African country.
Thus, the dependence of the country's economy on the cotton sector exposes it to fluctuations. of its courses as well as climatic hazards, very likely to have repercussions on growth prospects. In addition, the energy sector, despite the gradual improvements it has registered, still falls short of meeting the standards needed to no longer pose a threat to the country's economic dynamism, and requires continued investment, in the wake of those companies
Finally, the " high social demands " faced by most of the government's reforms could pose a threat to their advancement, particularly because of unemployment and unemployment. low income per capita. In addition, the existence of significant external budgetary needs, coupled with the dependence of the Beninese economy on the Nigerian neighbor, as well as the accumulation of public debt due in particular to the recent bond issues by the country, weigh in risks to the economic growth of the country.
Experts believe that with an increased policy of rationalization of expenditures to reduce the budget deficit and the burden of debt service, the country could quickly improve its rating in the next few years. years, or on the contrary see it deteriorate if economic reforms slow down or if the economic debt of the country increases considerably.
Moutiou Adjibi Nourou
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