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In its last note of conjuncture published on June 20, the National Institute of statistics has bet on a rise in gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.3% between April and June, a stable level compared to the two previous quarters .
This assumption is slightly more optimistic than that of the Banque de France, which lowered its forecast in early July to 0.2% against 0.3% previously, due in particular to disappointing prospects for French industrial production.
Whatever the final figure, "we should stay at a low pace", warns Emmanuel Jessua, director of studies at the Rexecode Institute."The intrinsic dynamics of the French economy remains weak", because "marked by low productivity gains", he insists.
According to the latest indicators published by INSEE, the French economy should nevertheless benefit in the second quarter of an increase in consumption, boosted by tax cuts and new spending decided under the pressure of "yellow vests" .
"There is an increase in revenues related to the measures voted in December. This will eventually produce its effects"Mr. Jessua, who recalls that purchasing power is expected to increase by more than 2% this year, its highest growth since 2007.
"If we exclude a few large sectors that are still struggling, such as food and cars, consumption should restart", compliments Stéphane Colliac, economist at Euler Hermès, who reports encouraging prospects"in textiles and electronics".
"But it's still shy: we're not on a spectacular dynamic", adds the specialist, who recalls that a large part of the purchasing power gains"continues to fuel savings ", currently at a record level – 15.3% according to the Banque de France.
"Morose background"
What will be the level of the other components of French growth? According to INSEE, business investment should remain dynamic (+ 0.8%), driven notably by the services sector, in line with a good first quarter (+ 0.7%).
Exports, which slowed at the beginning of the year, are expected to fall (-0.7%). Foreign trade would again weigh negatively on growth in France (-0.1 points).
"The global context"marked by trade tensions with the United States and a marked slowdown in growth in the euro area,"does not carry", emphasizes Emmanuel Jessua."This necessarily weighs on the French economic climate", he adds.
In the spotlight: Germany, the driving force of the euro zone and France's leading trading partner, whose economy has been in a state of flux for several months. "At first, one could think that it would be transitory. But the provisional tends to last"recalls the economist.
What will be the impact of the German and European slowdown on the tricolor economy? The hexagonal growth "is one of the strongest in the euro zone", assured the beginning of July the Minister of the Economy Bruno Mayor, highlighting the capacity of resistance of the French activity.
For the whole of 2019, INSEE forecasts a growth of 1.3%, slightly above the average of the euro zone (1.2%). This figure is in line with the forecast of the IMF and the Bank of France, but lower than the target of the government, which bets on 1.4%.
"The French economy has specificities that allow it to resist", concedes Stéphane Colliac, who cites for example the importance of the luxury sector in France, generally less sensitive to economic contingencies.
"But we are not completely immune, we can see it with the automotive sector", adds the economist, who judges the current context"relatively morose".
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