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Although more or less unchanged, the global outlook would have varied from one country to another, the international organization noted that "the pace of expansion seems to have peaked in some major countries and growth has become less synchronized. "
According to the Monetary Fund projections, growth in domestic demand is expected to remain robust, even as overall output growth slows in some cases where it has been above trend for several quarters
In detail, recent projections show that oil-exporting countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan have benefited from the improved price outlook.
On the other hand, the figures of the organization show that the prospects of the oil importing countries remained fragile
"Several countries still face considerable fiscal consolidation needs, and the threat of intensified geopolitical conflicts continues to weigh on growth in the region," the IMF said, saying growth should 2.2% in 2017 to 3.5% in 2018, then to 3.9% in 2019. This is 0.2 percentage point more than forecast in the MEPs last April for 2019.
Driven by rising commodity prices, the recovery is expected to continue in sub-Saharan Africa where growth for the region as a whole is expected to increase from 2.8% in 2017 to 3.4% in 2018. It should to rise to 3.8% next year, 0.1 percentage point higher than expected in the MEPs last April for 2019.
"This upward revision of the forecasts is explained by the improved prospects for Nigeria, where growth is expected to increase from 0.8% in 017 to 2.1% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019 (0.4 percentage point higher than forecast in the MEPs last April for 2019) thanks to the improvement of the outlook for oil prices ", explained the organization.
Despite a worse-than-expected first quarter (partly due to temporary factors), the South African economy in the South is expected to recover somewhat over the remainder of 2018 and 2019, predicts the IMF, underlining that renewed confidence in changes in the leadership of the country should gradually lead to an increase in private investment.
Forecasts in advanced economies indicate that growth is expected to increase remain above trend in 2018, at 2.4% (as in 2017), before falling to 2.2% in 2019.
"The forecast for 2018 is 0.1 percentage point lower than PEM last April, largely due to a moderation in growth This is more marked than expected in the euro zone and Japan after several quarters of growth above potential, "the IMF said.
Citing the case of the United States, the organization noted that the expansion in the short term should strengthen temporarily, with growth reaching 2.9% in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019.
The trend in the euro area is a gradual slowdown in growth from 2.4% in 2017 to 2% in 2018 and 1.9% in 2019, corresponding to a downward revision of 0.2 percentage point for 2018 and 0.1 percentage point for 2019 compared to the MEPs last April.
The trend is also downward in Japan, where the growth forecast has been revised to 1.0% for 2018, 0.2 percentage point lower than in the MEPs last April.
However, activity is expected to strengthen over the rest of the year and in 2019, driven by an increase in consumption. private sector, external demand and investment, "said the IMF
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