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Bill ConnellyESPN
The schedule of the third week of college football is a little light, is not it?
Admittedly, Alabama and Clemson have taken the road to face absolutely incompetent opponents. Bama will face South Carolina, who looked good on Charleston Southern on the first start of quarterback Ryan Hilinski, and Clemson must head north to face Syracuse, the only ACC team to have beaten , or even scared, the Tigers in the last two years.
Nevertheless, chances are good for both heavyweights (they still do), and there are no top 25 games against Top 25 in the standings. Among the top eight teams in the polls, one play against an FCS opponent (LSU vs. Northwestern State), and the other seven are favored by 28 points on average. Not a lot of fireworks there.
Really, weeks like this can be very fun. We do not have to worry about the national title race for the moment, and we have some prime opportunities to determine which surprising stories of the season are real and which ones are not.
Let's review some of the questions that could be answered this weekend.
All the time is
Is Maryland real?
Game of the week 3: at Temple (noon, CBS Sports)
The season has been pretty good for second chances. LSU, led by Ed Orgeron (10-25 years old in three seasons at Ole Miss and expected to wait a decade for a new head coaching position) has just won a big victory on the road against Texas and places his team in the fourth rank of PAs. poll, fourth in my SP + rankings and third in ESPN's REIT. Meanwhile, near Chesapeake Bay, Mike Locksley's Maryland is the start of the season.
The Terrapins come out of a rout of Syracuse (63-20), a result that dropped the Orange polls and went from 40th to 70th in the SP + ranking. They embarrassed Howard 79-0 in the first week, which means they've already scored more points in two games (142) than Locksley's New Lobos in his last seven games in charge (118). Locksley made a breathtaking 2-26 run in three seasons in New Mexico, and began rebuilding his career. As Maryland's offensive coordinator, he could not save Randy Edsall's job. He was found in Nick Saban 's coaching challenge project, serving first as an analyst, then as a receiver coach, then as an offensive coordinator. Nearly eight years after the bombing of the UNM, he had another career as head coach.
It seems that he has learned lessons, huh? After receiving no vote in the preparatory polls, the Terps are already in 21st place, their highest ranking in 16 years. They have an average of 7.9 yards per game, they are in the top 20 in speed and success, and they give up virtually no negative play.
Locksley, the offensive, and Scottie Montgomery, offensive coordinator (another former head coach / recovery project after four years at the head of East Carolina), appeared to be based on two general principles: name your best staff on the ground – even if that means you have to, find a training for three good RBs – and once the defenses are in conflict, kill them with run-pass options.
"We have an offensive style that the defense can only be right if it outperforms us," Locksley said after the Syracuse victory. Conceptually, the offense is logic: run well enough for the defense to compensate, then punish it with the pass. "When you start playing football with the way we have the ability to do it," said Locksley, "the only way to stop it is to add an extra player to the box."
According to data provided by Sports Info Solutions, Maryland has attempted 19 RPOs this year; they resulted in 10 assists, nine runs and 172 yards (9.1 per game). The Terps gave the impression that Syracuse had never seen a RPO before, repeatedly injuring the Orange and punishing him for putting too many defenders in the box.
So, is this thrust real? Maryland will not reach an average of 70 points per game for the season – which is hot, I know – but can the Terps continue their overall offensive success as their opponents adapt and the Big Ten East calendar is wreaking havoc?
SP + is designed not to exaggerate, but the fact that Maryland went from 68th to 37th in two weeks suggests that the Terps could continue to climb. Nevertheless, with a schedule that includes four top 20 current SP + teams and only one ranked lower than the 58th, there are likely many games played and potential losses on the schedule.
This week's game in Temple is a perfect test. The Owls have not been tested 1-0, but rank 44th in the SP + and dominated the Terps by three touchdowns at College Park last year.
No, these first two weeks probably do not bode well for a national title race in Maryland. But in just two weeks, the Terps went from a 27% Bowl eligibility chance (by SP +) to a 28% chance of winning eight games or more. We can take a moment to amaze ourselves, even if the reality is about to happen.
Is Nebraska in trouble?
Game of the week 3: Northern Illinois (20 hours, FS1)
You know the story pretty well now. Nebraska has won four of six victories up in 2018 and is headed out to the offseason with a major hype and jump potential in sophomore under Scott Frost. The Huskers remained among the top 15 teams in terms of national title chances as the season approached, but whatever rating system you prefer – FPI, SP +, etc. – it was not as high as conventional wisdom.
Until now, it seems that even the odds were too high. The attack did not perform well in a 14-point win against South Alabama, then Nebraska quickly took the lead in Colorado, then lost speed and suffered a demoralizing loss in overtime. Instead of a resounding 2-0, the Huskers are 1-1. With the upcoming calendar, SP + has reduced its probabilities of eligibility to cups to only 40% and all hope of a rise of 2019 requires an immediate step forward: their three worst opponents (by SP +) will be on the agenda over the next four weeks.
The biggest problem right now: the running game has been terribly inefficient, and the defense is abandoning too many big games (and not just the Variety "96 yards flea"). This makes Northern Illinois an interesting opponent. The Huskies are 38th in explosive marginal attack (measure of mine that measures the extent of games played successfully by a team and adjusts according to the position of the field, the distance and the field), and their defense occupies the 12th rank in terms of movement rate (the race stops at or behind the ball). line).
The Huskies are probably not good enough to beat the Huskers unaided, but they have a lot of remaining staff (like linebacker Antonio Jones-Davis) from last year's dynamite defense and will test Adrian's quarterback Martinez and the UN offensive. If the Huskers are fighting in this one, they could keep fighting for a while.
Is North Carolina a competitor of the ACC coastline?
Game of the week 3: at Wake Forest (Friday, 18h, ESPN)
The Mack Brown Comeback Tour earned its second win in as many trials last week, after a double-digit return from Miami and a late goal to win despite it all. But while SP + took a long time to warm up in Maryland, it's still a glacier when it comes to the Tar Heels. After starting the season in 66th place at SP +, they are only 56th at the moment despite their two conference wins.
The main reason is, on paper, they should not have beaten Miami. SP + is a predictive measure and therefore relies primarily on the more stable and predictive aspects of the game. I often refer to a measure called hope of victories after a match, which essentially looks at the more predictive statistics of a game and says: "Based on these statistics, you could have hoped to win this game X percent of the time." The hope of victory of the UNC against Miami is 31%. The Canes had a higher success rate, better field positioning and more opportunities to score. They win this game most of the time.
A win is a win, but the stats profile of the UNC is not particularly impressive, and now, the Talons are a 3-point underdog in the oddly timed match and strangely without Wake's conference. Admittedly, they were not supposed to beat South Carolina or Miami either, but there is a legitimate reason why Vegas and the numbers have been slow to warm up. Even Mack's dance moves did not influence them. Again.
So, USC has an offense now?
Game of the week 3: at BYU (15h30, ABC)
As I wrote on Monday, Graham Harrell's tenure as offensive coordinator of the USC has already helped overcome a hiccup: JT Daniels' injury, second end of the first week. But Kedon Slovis took over and scored 28-for-33 for 370 yards and three goals against Stanford, and the Trojans scored a surprisingly easy win on a 42-3 record.
So that's it, then? USC has an exciting quarterback and an air raid type attack, and now the Trojans are good again? We'll see. It's apparently a rite of passage for a fashionable freshman in a LA school that has to go through BYU.
The Cougars gave UCLA's Josh Rosen his first real loss (11-for-23 for 106 yards and three choices) when Rosen was a freshman in 2015. They also defended the pass this year, forcing the Tyler Huntley, of Utah, Jarrett Guarantano, of Tennessee, tossed and keep it at a combined smugglers' mark of 132.5, which is not terrible, but far from it. to be excellent.
Is Trevor Lawrence fragile?
Game of the week 3: in Syracuse (19:30, ABC)
OK, spoiler: No, he is not.
That said, it was not great either. He threw three interceptions against two touchdowns and needed the help of his amazing receivers to win some untargeted balls against A & M last week. After finishing ninth in the QBR as a freshman and finishing the year as a university QB, he is only 22 years old this year. Shame!
Obvious disclaimers apply. (A) This has been two games; (B) Even if his astonishing recipients were to bail him out, he will have them all year, so that does not matter. (C) Clemson just beat perhaps the best team in his calendar with two touchdowns with him playing the "fragile" ball by his standards. Now he faces a shock shocked by Syracuse shells and only two other defenses on the calendar can even slightly follow Clemson. Even if it takes him all year to find the fifth report, as long as he finds it before the post-season, the title hopes of the Tigers are probably good.
The defense of Syracuse is very active. Security Andre Cisco is as good at football as in the country, and two early turnarounds are basically the only thing that could make the Saturday night match interesting.
Week 3 playlist
Here are 10 games – at least one from every weekend slot – that you should pay attention to if you want to make the most of the weekend, from the point of view of information and entertainment.
Friday night
Houston c. 20, Washington State (9:15 pm, ESPN)
Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen greets former mentor Mike Leach in the city. We do not need advanced statistics to suggest that this one will be very powerful.
SP + projection: Wazzu 46, Houston 34
Early Saturday
Pitt at No. 13 Penn State (noon, ABC)
The Nittany Lions seem to hold most of the benefits of it, but this may be the last match of the rivalry in a while. Look because of this, if nothing else.
SP + projection: PSU 43, Pitt 17
# 6 Ohio State Indiana (noon, Fox)
I will not try to convince you that Indiana can win this game, but Hoosiers can test the Buckeyes in different ways – including defense defense and pass (QB Michael Penix Jr., a decision made this week -end, seemed excellent until now for IU).
SP + projection: State of Ohio 41, Indiana 23
State of Kansas in the State of Mississippi (noon, ESPN)
The Wildcats have played two flawless games (against a much lower competition) and MSU quarterback Tommy Stevens was injured on the shoulder last week, but should be ready to leave. This will make it possible to check if the Bulldogs are worthy of the highest opinions of SP +, which ranks at the 13th rank.
SP + projection: MSU 44, KSU 31
Saturday afternoon
Go ahead and watch Bama-South Carolina for a while, just in case, but go to those games if or when Ryan Hilinski succumbs to Bama's defense.
# 19 Iowa in the state of Iowa (4 pm, FS1)
ISU has had a week to figure out what has (almost) gone wrong against northern Iowa, but if Iowa wins its fifth in a row in this series, it's probably more because of the high quality of Hawkeyes than the absence of Cyclones.
SP + projection: Iowa 29, ISU 25
Stanford at No. 17 UCF (3:30 pm, ESPN)
The fastest team in the country against the slowest. This game is fascinating from the point of view of style, fighting, but UCF is better than Stanford at the moment, even if the Knights have a potential controversy on the quarter.
SP + projection: UCF 36, Stanford 20
Saturday night
Go ahead and look at Clemson-Syracuse for a while, just in case, but switch on these games if or when they get out of hand.
# 9 from Florida to Kentucky (7pm, ESPN)
British quarterback Terry Wilson was lost for the season due to an injury last week, but Sawyer Smith came in and overtook Wilson's pass production. Will Florida's heavy bag defense bring it to land very quickly?
SP + projection: Florida 39, Kentucky 28
Florida State at 25 Virginia (19:30, ACC network)
The FSU offensive quickly met with success before his opponents could adjust to the tempo of offensive coordinator Kendal Briles. The UVA defense is talented and confident, and I am extremely curious to know how she will choose to defend this offense. (I'm also curious to know if FSU will defend.)
SP + projection: Virginia 40, FSU 32
Shippensburg at Slippery Rock (6 pm, Rock Athletics)
The deep cut this week. Slippery Rock is ranked 11th in the Division II coaching rankings, but you're watching him because of QB Roland Rivers III – he racked up 405 yards and 67 rushing yards in the 62-37 win over The Wayne State Week the week last, despite the fact that he was 49-13 at the half and the offense went into second gear.
SP + projection (based on 2018 figures): Rock 32, ship 27
Last Saturday
Texas Tech in Arizona (10:30 am, ESPN)
Tech beat Montana State and UTEP by a combined score of 83-13 – which would be impressive in a universe other than Maryland – and although Arizona's defense seems to be as problematic as ever, the l & # 39; Wildcats offense is as explosive as ever. The points are what we want from Pac-12 After Dark, right?
SP + projection: Tech 40, Arizona 36
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