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The latest moves on the global stock market, according to Bloomberg's analysis of Bank of America, are similar to those of the year 1998 when the economic crisis in the Asian region took place [19659002] According to analysts at the American Bank, today is evidence of two factors that could influence us to have "difficult years". As equity values rise due to the optimistic growth of the US economy, developing markets have collapsed under a strong dollar, says strategist Michael Hartnet. All this is similar to the situation in 1998, he warns.
Is the reality really so bleak and only after the world economy, after ten years of torture, has come out of the global economic crisis that struck it in 2008? The analyst of the Russian consulting firm Finam Sergei Drozdov believes that the scenario for colleagues at Bank of America is possible, but also notes that this will certainly not come this year, but we could attend in the next.
The signs of the crisis also show the high price of oil that some predict for growth at 90 and even $ 100 a barrel because of the situation with Iran.
Drozdov points out that the foreign debt of US companies could also be a trigger for the crisis. The expert observes a rather interesting fact about the US stock market – a large number of repurchases of securities by companies with "generous" dividends. However, he points out that, according to the Fed's stress tests, two of the six largest Wall Street banks – Goldman Saks and Morgan Stanley – will have to freeze dividends and buy back shares at the current level.
"The main leaders seem to realize" DrooDov. "Radojka Nikolic, editor of Ekonometra and magazine" Biznis ", believes that the crisis can not be said this year, as reported by [19659003Withtheclosingthateverythingispossibleinthedynamicworldinwhichwelivewhereeverythingisrelatedtopoliticsheneverthelessbelievesthatthecurrentsituationcanhardlybeacapsuleforanewcrisisthattheworldhitin2008
"Crises occur partly in certain segments, on individual continents, in different business sectors and areas, but this form of crisis is what happens in 2008, which started in the sectors of bank and insurance, and that has been mapped in the real sector and hit the economies of all countries, it is difficult to expect this to be repeated. " At the end of last year, the results of the EU's small and medium-sized enterprises, which account for the largest part of the GDP, were presented and the analysis showed that at the beginning of 2017, the economy had reached the level of before 2008.
Nikolić pointed out the estimates of all concerned international institutions, the World Bank, the IMF, the IBRD, which will be no only a year of success and good development, but also in 2019 and 2020. This year, the global economy is expected to grow by 4.0%, which is very high, and estimates are expected to reach 5.0%. Next year, she notes.
However, she adds that she also heard an interesting observation from the first man "Erste Group" when he summarized the good result of last year, whose profit is several billion dollars. euros. Although expectations are good for next year, on the question of whether it is possible that a crisis still occurs, his answer was that it was possible.
It is said, however, that they do not see a year, two, but In perspective, you must always consider that there may be a problem somewhere.
"This time, the crisis could come back from the real estate sector, as had already been the case in 2008, and from the other sector potentially they are afraid that they could blow up the crypts," Sputnik estimates the leader of the "Erste group."
Opinions and other banking groups generally coincide, with years of development, but everyone thinks that the geopolitical situation is not influenced. "
" When it comes to the global crisis, it is usually seen again in this big rise in the real estate market and through the cryptoids that can potentially be a balloon that can explode, "Niko lice for Sputnik
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