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Belgrade – In 2018, Serbia's gross domestic product will accelerate to 4.0%, which will be the most recent growth in the last 10 years, according to analysts' estimates. Adiko Bank.
Source: Tanjug
photo: Thinkstock
It is estimated that this is due to a better investment climate, a better agricultural season and better forecasts than the initial forecasts for the first half of the year of the year. On the boom, economic expansion will boost demand growth, foreign direct investment and road construction, according to analysts at the bank.
As indicated in the publication "Quarterly trends by financial and trend trends", the continued growth in demand contributes to the increase in the employment rate and wage growth, to loans more lenient and more budget spending.
As for inflation, it is expected to reach 2.0% in the fall, because of rising labor costs, higher prices of goods are going worsening and reducing domestic consumption supported by fiscal expansion and private sector development. the average inflation rate in 2018 will be zero and it will rise to 1.8%.
"Although growth in the euro zone is slowing, the environment remains encouraging, with the tripling of Serbian exporters and the export of agriculture, forecasts expect annual growth of two figures of 10% of exports of goods in the second half of 2018 "publication.
This banking group estimates that a further increase in investment, the import of goods will end and the rise in commodity prices will result in a moderate trade deficit of about 11% of GDP this year, but remittances from foreign workers and a reduction in investment deficits reduce to some extent the balance of payments deficit to 5.5 percent of GDP.
They also predict that, given the uncertain external influence, moderate inflation in Serbia and the foreseeable normalization of the monetary policy of the Fed and the European Central Bank, the first rise the benchmark rate will occur only in the first quarter for 25 basis points).
Thanks to a steady increase in tax revenues, fiscal discipline was postponed to the first half following a high budget surplus of 1.2% of GDP in 2017, according to the statement.
However, addiction analysts estimate that the budget surplus will be lowered to 0.5% of GDP in 2018 due to accelerating growth in capital spending and the increase in wages and pensions.
Regarding the credit activity of banks in Serbia, it is expected that this year they will increase by 8%. "Thanks to the type of fiscal consolidation, GDP growth, the opening of the primary currency and the dinar, a further reduction of the public debt by 57.5% of GDP is expected, it opens the way to the strengthening of the rating ". in the Adiko Bank publication
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