[ad_1]
However, in the fall of 1918, an unexpected virus appeared in North America and Europe. The causative agent was a subtype of H1N1 avian influenza whose people died within a few hours to a few days. In the space of four months, Spanish fever, as it has remained in the history of medicine as the most prolific, has spread throughout the world and reached even the most isolated communities .
In the following spring, about 5% of the world's population had already died. A hundred years later, the 1918 pandemic seemed to be a long time ago and impossible as goddesses, plague or other deadly diseases that we have almost completely eradicated. However, the grip never completely left us. It still dies between 250,000 and 500,000 people a year. Each year, a slightly modified strain. Except in 1918, pandemics appeared during the last century in 1957, 1968, 1977 and last in 2009.
Experts agree that a new type of virus appears as infectious and deadly as Spanish fever, or more than its origin.
"The flu pandemic is like earthquakes, hurricanes, or tsunamis – you never know what the force will be," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. University of Minnesota.
"The idea that it will not be repeated in 1918 is stupid," he says, although he agrees that it is impossible to predict it but at least we can guess it.
"For starters, the impact of the virus will depend on how quickly we catch it," says expert Robert Webster. Some systems can do this: the World Health Organization (WHO) has influenza control teams and continuously monitors their evolution in six key laboratories around the world, as well as in responsible agricultural laboratories pigs and pigs.
"Surveillance is of course good, but we can not control all the birds and pigs in the world," says Webster.
The reality is that the virus will appear safely.
"Once that happens, it will go around the world and, given the mobility of people, in a few weeks, it will arrive in various parts of the world," said Herardo Chauvel, professor of epidemiology and Biostatistics at the University of Georgia, adding:
"The infected person spreads the virus a day before he feels the first symptoms himself."
Given that the number of people on the planet has more than tripled in the past hundred years, it is likely that this time there would be more deaths. If it kills 50 million people in 1918, it could now reach more than 200 million people worldwide.
"In 2009, in Mexico, many people came to the hospital only after becoming very, very sick, and it was just too late," he said. For many of these victims, it was an economic decision: going to a doctor meant a day without pay and without pay.
If the pandemic struck the United States, there would also be great differences depending on whether the infected person is insured or not for health insurance. People without health insurance will probably wait until later to go to the hospital.
"Vaccines are the best way to end a pandemic," says Lon Simonsen, Denmark's infectious disease epidemiologist.
But above all, this requires the identification of the virus, the creation of a vaccine and its distribution around the world – a task easier said than done. Influenza vaccines are now being produced more quickly than 50 or 60 years ago, but this process still takes some time and lasts for months.
"Worldwide, during the first six to nine months, only 1 to 2% of the population would have access to vaccines, and the problem is that at best, the vaccine has still only gotten worse. 60% efficiency, "he said.
If a pandemic were declared today in 1918, cities around the world would most likely collapse. Companies and schools would be closed; public transport would not be transported; it would extinguish electricity and corpses would begin to accumulate in the streets. The supply of food and medicine would be interrupted.
Even after independent extinction of the virus, the consequences would be lasting. The 1918 virus was "very terrible," says Simonsen, as 95% of those who killed him were neither very young nor very old, but in power, a large number of workers disappeared and the Influenza had major repercussions on families overall because the children were without parents.
Scientists have discovered why this was so in 2005, when researchers reconstructed the Spanish flu virus from samples taken during the Brevig mission in Alaska. Of the 80 people, 72 died in less than a week, but they managed to take lung samples from the lungs because a victim's body was preserved in the permafrost. They discovered that the 1918 flu type had increased enough. Namely, the body killed itself because the virus caused natural immunity and the so-called "cytokine storm", in which the body expels compounds intended to prevent virus attacks. not very toxic – they are responsible for the pain we feel when we have the flu, and too much can damage the organs and cause a failure of the immune system.
Because adults have a stronger immune system than children and the elderly, researchers believe that their stronger responses to handling have been fatal.
"We finally figured out why the virus was so incredibly pathogenic – the body was almost completely killed," said Webster.
In the decades to come, researchers have developed a variety of therapies that can help mitigate "cytokine storms". But these treatments are not quite perfect and are not widely available. The huge loss of young and middle aged people could endanger the global economy in this case. Nevertheless, there is a chance of salvation: the universal flu vaccine. Efforts to develop such a vaccine are beginning to bear fruit, but they are still waiting. "Studies are under way, so we hope that at the time of the appearance of such a hypothetical virus, this vaccine is already ready .For the moment, we have not unsuccessful, "said Webster.
Kurir.rs/Express.hr
Photo: Profimedia
steed
Author:
steed
[ad_2]
Source link
