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Washington – The latest moves on the global stock market, according to Bank of America analysis by Bloomberg, are similar to those of the Asian economic crisis of 1998.
According to analysts from At the American Bank, today, we are seeing two factors that could have repercussions on "difficult years". As equity values rise due to the optimistic growth of the US economy, developing markets have collapsed under a strong dollar, says strategist Michael Hartnet. All this is similar to the situation in 1998, he warns.
Is the reality really so bleak and only after the global economy, after ten years of torture, has come out of the global economic crisis that struck it in 2008? The analyst of the Russian consulting company Finam Sergei Drozdov believes that the scenario of colleagues from the Bank of America is possible, but also notes that this will certainly not come this year, but we could attend in the future.
The signs of the crisis are seeing the high price of oil that some predict growth and upward 90, and even $ 100 a barrel because of the situation with Iran.
Drozdov also points out that the external debt of American companies could also be a trigger for the crisis.
The expert observes a rather interesting fact about the US stock market. the purchase of securities by companies with "generous" dividends. However, he points out that, according to the Fed's stress tests, two of the six largest Wall Street banks – Goldman Saks and Morgan Stanley – will have to freeze dividends and buy back shares at the current level.
"The main leaders seem to realize" DrooDov. "Radojka Nikolic, editor of Ekonometra and magazine" Biznis ", believes that the crisis of this year can not be said, as indicated by the previous indicators.
With the closing is everything but in the dynamic world where we live, where everything is related to politics, she nevertheless believes that the current situation can hardly be a capsule for a new crisis that the worldwide hit in 2008.
"Seizures appear partially in certain segments, on different continents, in different sectors and business sectors, but this form of crisis that began in 2008 in the banking sectors and insurance, and that has been assigned to the real sector and to the economies of all countries, it is difficult to predict this way She recalls that the results of small and medium enterprises in the EU that in the countries of the Union, constitute the bulk of GDP, were presented late last year and that analysis has shown that it is only In early 2017 The economy has reached the level of operations that it had before the crisis in 2008.
Nikolić emphasized the estimates of all relevant international institutions, the Bank the IMF and IBRD, that it will not only be a year of success and development. , but also in 2019 and 2020. This year, the global economy is expected to grow by 4.0%, which is very high, and estimates are expected to reach 5.0% next year, note-t -she.
However, she adds having heard an interesting observation from the first man "Erste Group" when he sums up the good result of last year, whose profit is several billion euros. Although expectations are good for next year, to the question of whether it is possible that a crisis still occurs, his answer was that it was possible.
They say, however, that they do not see for a year, two, but in perspective, one must always calculate that there may be a problem somewhere.
"This time, the crisis could come from the real estate sector, as it already happened in 2008, and from the other sector potentially feared that it could blow up the crypts," he said. Sputnik's interlocutor. "We are the leader of the Erste group."
and other banking groups largely coincide, with years of development, but that everyone feels that the geopolitical situation do not affect it.
"As for the global crisis, we usually see it again at this great rise.The real estate markets and through the crypts that can potentially be a balloon that can explode," Nikolic said. To Sputnik
Mira Kankarap Trklja / Sputnik.rs
