Serbia expects the highest GDP growth in 10 years

BELGRADE – Serbia's gross domestic product will accelerate to 4.0% in 2018 thanks to a better investment climate, a more prosperous agricultural season and better forecasts than the initial forecasts for the country. first half, according to Ađiko Bank. According to analysts from the Economic Research Department of Ađiko Bank, economic growth is faster, spending growth is stimulating, foreign direct investment and road construction, as the publication says "Quarterly Guide to Financial Trends" and the market ". With regard to inflation, they expect to reach 2.0% by the fall, on the basis of the strengthening of the labor market, rising consumer prices, and inflation. 39, stronger domestic demand, which is supported by tax expansion and private sector development, but that it "Although growth in the euro area has slowed down, the environment remains stimulating, with the increase in the market share of Serbian exporters and the increase in agricultural exports, the forecasts point to a double-digit growth of 10% .This banking group believes that & # 39; A further increase in investment demand, imports of consumer goods and rising commodity prices will result in a moderate trade deficit in this sector. "

Record transfers of foreign workers and the reduction of the reduced investment deficits will somehow turn the balance of payments deficit to 5.5% of GDP

They also predict that, given the uncertain external influence, the underlying inflation in Serbia and the normalization predictable monetary policy of the Fed and the European Central Bank, the first increase in the benchmark interest rate of the National Bank of Serbia is only coming to the first In the quarter of 2020 (from 25 points of base)

Thanks to a steady increase in tax revenues, fiscal discipline has been maintained in the first half of the current year after a high budget surplus of 1.2% of GDP in 2017, [19659002] However, Ađiko Banka analysts estimate that the budget surplus will be lowered to 0.5% of GDP in 2018 due to the accelerated growth of capital spending and investment. 39, increase in wages and pensions [19659006]. "Thanks to strong fiscal consolidation, stronger GDP growth, a sustainable primary surplus and a stronger dinar, a further reduction in public debt is expected at the 57% level in Serbia., 5% of GDP , which paves the way for a strengthening of the rating of the country, "writes the publication of the statements of the bank Andiko.

(Tanjug)