Serbia expects the highest GDP growth in 10 years

For faster economic expansion, growth in consumption, foreign direct investment and road construction will be stimulating, according to analysts at Addiko Bank's Economic Research Department

. With regard to inflation, they expect that they will reach 2.0% in the autumn, on the basis of the strengthening of the labor market, rising prices consumption and rising wages. stronger domestic demand, supported by fiscal expansion and private sector development, but the average inflation rate will be lower in 2018 and rise to 1.8%. "19659002" Although growth in the eurozone is slowing, the environment remains challenging. with an increase in the market share of Serbian exporters and a stronger export of agriculture, the forecasts indicate a 10 percent double-digit g a slight increase in exports of goods in the second half of 2018 and in 2019 "

This banking group estimates that a further increase in demand for investment, imports of consumer goods and a rise in commodity prices will result in a moderate trade deficit in this sector. foreign worker records and the reduction of investment deficits will somehow reduce the balance of payments deficit to 5.5% of GDP

They also predict that, given the uncertain external influence , underlying inflation in Serbia and the foreseeable normalization of the monetary policy of the Fed and the European Central Bank, the first rise in the rate of interest The reference bank of the National Bank of Serbia will only occur in the first quarter of 2020.

During the first half of the year, fiscal discipline was maintained after a high budget surplus of 1.2% of GDP in 2017, says the report.

However, analysts at the Addiko Bank estimate that the budget surplus will be lowered to 0.5% of GDP in 2018 due to accelerated growth in capital spending and inflation. increase in wages and pensions

. "With strong fiscal consolidation, stronger GDP growth, a sustained primary surplus and a stronger dinar, a further reduction in public debt is expected at 57.5 percent of GDP. paves the way for strengthening the country's rating, "Addiko Bank concludes.