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The latest moves on the global stock market, according to Bloomberg's analysis of Bank of America, are similar to those of the year 1998 when the economic crisis in the Asian region took place [19659002] According to analysts at the American Bank, today is evidence of two factors that could influence us to have "difficult years". As equity values rise due to the optimistic growth of the US economy, developing markets have collapsed under a strong dollar, says strategist Michael Hartnet. All this is similar to the situation in 1998, he warns.
Is the reality really so bleak and only after the world economy, after ten years of torture, has come out of the global economic crisis that struck it in 2008? The analyst of the Russian consulting firm Finam Sergei Drozdov believes that the scenario for colleagues at Bank of America is possible, but also notes that this will certainly not come this year, but we could attend in the next.
The signs of the crisis also show the high price of oil that some anticipate up to 9 0, and even 100 dollars a barrel because of the situation with Iran.
Drozdov also indicates that the external debt of US companies could also be a trigger for the crisis.
The expert observes a pretty interesting fact about the US stock market. the purchase of securities by companies with "generous" dividends. However, he points out that, according to the Fed's stress tests, two of the six largest Wall Street banks – Goldman Saks and Morgan Stanley – will have to freeze dividends and buy back shares at the current level.
"The main leaders seem to realize" DrooDov. "Radojka Nikolic, editor of Ekonometra and magazine" Biznis ", believes that the crisis can not be said this year, as indicated by the indicators
With closing is everything but in the dynamic world where we live, where everything is related to politics, she nevertheless believes that the current situation can hardly be a capsule for a new crisis that the world whole hit in 2008.
"Crises occur partially in certain segments, on different continents, in different sectors and business sectors, but this form of crisis that began in 2008 in the banking sectors and insurance, and that has been allocated to the real sector and the economies of all the countries, it is difficult to predict this way She notes that at the end of last year, the results of the activity EU small and medium-sized enterprises, which in the EU countries make up the largest part of the GDP, are presented and the analysis showed that it was only early 2017. The economy has reached the level of business it had before the crisis in 2008.
Nikolić pointed to the estimates of all relevant international institutions, the World Bank, IMF and IBRD which will not only be a year of success and development. , but also in 2019 and 2020. This year, the global economy is expected to grow by 4.0%, which is very high, and estimates are expected to reach 5.0% next year, note-t -she.
However, she adds that she also heard an interesting observation from the first man "Erste Group" when he summarized the good result of last year, whose profit is several billion dollars. euros. Although expectations are good for next year, on the question of whether it is possible that a crisis still occurs, his answer was that it was possible.
It is said, however, that they do not see a year, two, but In perspective, you must always consider that there may be a problem somewhere.
"This time, the crisis could come back from the real estate sector, as had already been the case in 2008, and from the other sector potentially they fear that they could blow up the crypts", said the Sputnik interlocutor. "We are the Erste group".
and other banking groups largely coincide, with years of development, but that everyone feels that the geopolitical situation does not affect it.
"As far as the global crisis is concerned, we usually see this huge rise again in real estate markets and cryptools that can potentially be a balloon that can explode," Nikolic told Sputnik
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