THE MOST IMPORTANT GROWTH IN THE PREVIOUS 10 YEARS GDP will accelerate to 4.0%

Photo: D. Milenkovic / RAS Serbia

Serbia's gross domestic product will grow to 4.0% in 2018, the strongest growth of the last 10 years years, is the analyst Adiko Bank

This will be, according to estimates, due to a better investment climate, a better agricultural season and better forecasts than the initial forecasts for the first semester. According to analysts at the bank, growth in consumption, foreign direct investment and road construction will boost growth.

According to the Quarterly Guide to Financial and Market Trends, growth in consumption will help raise employment rates and wage increases In terms of inflation, they are expecting to reach 2.0% in the fall, on the basis of stronger labor market, higher consumer prices and stronger domestic demand, which is supported by tax expansion and development private sector, but that the average inflation rate will be lower in 2018.

– Although growth in the euro area has slowed, the environment remains challenging, and with the increase of the market share of Serbian exporters and stronger exports of agriculture, the forecasts indicate a double-digit annual growth of 10 percent of exports of goods in the second half of 2018, as

This group bank estimates that an increase Additional demand for investment, imports of consumer goods and rising commodity prices will result in a moderate trade deficit of about 11% of GDP this year, but record transfers of foreign workers and the reduction of the investment deficit will somehow reduce the balance of payments deficit to 5.5% of GDP

They also predict that, given the uncertain external influence , moderate inflation in Serbia and the foreseeable normalization of monetary policy. and the European Central Bank, the first increase in the benchmark interest rate of the National Bank of Serbia is only due in the first quarter of 2020 (by 25 basis points).

Thanks to a steady increase in tax revenues, fiscal discipline after the top According to the report, the budget surplus is 1.2% of GDP in 2017.

However, analysts said: Addiko Banka estimate that the budget surplus will fall to 0.5% of GDP in 2018 due to accelerating growth in capital spending and rising wages and pensions.

Regarding the credit activity of banks in Serbia, they expect a record growth of 8.0%

– Thanks to a rigorous fiscal consolidation, to a stronger growth of GDP, a sustainable primary surplus and a stronger dinar, a further reduction of the public debt to 57.5% of GDP is expected. of the country – it is concluded in the Addiko Bank publication.

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