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Three things to look at
1. How do raptors defend Embiid?The four regular season games between these two teams took place before the trade deadline, when the Raptors acquired Gasol. But Toronto's new starting center played two games against Embiid before the deal, and the Gasol Grizzlies had some defensive success when the two faced each other. In fact, the 8 – 28 (29%) that Embiid shot against Memphis is the worst he has shot against an opponent he has faced more than once this season. Toronto will likely attempt to defend Embiid one-on-one to avoid rotation. They will also play it softly and invite him to shoot from the outside. On the other side of the ground, Gasol will have to make some attempts to push Embiid (and Boban Marjanovic) out of the basket and allow the Raptors' bullet-treating officers to attack the edge.
2 How the Sixers defend Leonard? After the Sixers' acquisition of Jimmy Butler, Butler defended Leonard more than Ben Simmons, and the Sixers held Toronto one point per possession when Leonard-Butler was the duel. Toronto will likely target JJ Redick (on Danny Green screens) in pick-and-roll, and it will be important for Leonard's main defender (whether it's Butler or Simmons) to get through those screens and get back to Leonard, who is probably the best-a-goal scorer outside of Houston. Leonard is not the most willing playmaker, so Philly can be a little aggressive with some help.
3 What is the advantage of the Toronto Bank?? The Raptors have better reserves than the Sixers, especially if the bruised heel Mike Scott suffered in the fifth game against Brooklyn is a problem for the future. But the Sixers will always have at least two starters in the game, and they started the second and fourth quarters, they are all five present, which has not been seen anywhere else. This could force Toronto head coach Nick Nurse to change his rotation, which has generally (and did not play well) four ground reserves early in the second and fourth periods. The Raptors outclassed the Magic by 72 points in five games, but Toronto scored a minus 13 in 25 minutes with Pascal Siakam on the ground without Lowry or Leonard.
The number to know
62.2, 46.3 – In the first round, the starting lineup of the Sixers – Simmons, Redick, Butler, Harris and Embiid – outperformed the Nets by 62.2 points for 100 possessions in 49 minutes at a time. With these five guys on the floor, the score was Sixers 141, Nets 70, Brooklyn shooting just 28% off the field.
The plus-62.2 is the best mark among the lineups that have played at least 25 minutes together in the playoffs with a pretty big margin. But the second-highest rating belongs to the Raptors' starting lineup (Lowry, Green, Leonard, Siakam, and Gasol), who surpassed the Magic by 46.3 points for every 100 points of possession in 96 minutes at a time. Toronto dominated Orlando in every first quarter and won the third quarter by at least eight points in four of the five games.
To return to the regular season, Philadelphia starters outshot their opponents by 27.9 points for 100 possessions in 210 minutes overall, while Toronto starters outscored their opponents by 24.5 points for 100 possessions in 257 minutes. in total. That kind of numbers does not go without a solid game at both ends of the box, but the Toronto group was slightly better off the offensive, while the Philly group was better defensive. These two teams are substituting themselves in a very different way (Philly usually shows up earlier in the first and third quarters), but it will be a battle of super queues in the first five or six minutes of each half, and something to give.
The choice
This should be a hell of a series between two teams that really need to win, considering how much they have invested in this season by trading for players who will have the opportunity to leave via a free agency this summer. Joel Embiid is a match-match advantage for the Sixers and seemed more mobile in the last two games against Brooklyn than he had earlier in the series. But with Gasol, with the length and athleticism of wings and power, the Raptors fit well with Philly. Toronto also has a field advantage, superior depth and no worries about the health of its best player. Raptors in 7.
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John Schuhmann is Senior Statistics Analyst for NBA.com. You can send him an email here, find his archives here and follow him on Twitter.
The opinions expressed on this page do not necessarily reflect those of the NBA, its clubs or Turner Broadcasting.o
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