Series Preview: Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels

Here we are. The Mariners have three more games to play and they are in control of their destiny. Everything apparently conspired to open a window to win their first playoff appearance since 2001. And compared to 2014 or 2016, that window is wide-open. In previous seasons, the Mariners had hoped beyond hope that they could win their final series of the season. and get help from other league teams. This year, they enter the final weekend of the regular season tied for second place Wild Card. FanGraphs gives them a 29.6% chance of qualifying for the playoffs; FiveThirtyEight has its chances of up to 42%. Win, and they’re in the playoffs; lose, and things get pretty complicated.

Before tackling their opponent this weekend, let’s break down the different scenarios to bring the Mariners to the playoffs:

• If the Mariners go 3-0, they will at least be guaranteed a decisive match 163. That would force the Red Sox to win all three games in Washington against the Nationals. If the Yankees lose to the Rays twice over the weekend, the Mariners could also find themselves tied for a Wild Card spot with New York. And depending on what the Red Sox do, there could be three teams tied for two spots. In this scenario, the Blue Jays are hoping the Red Sox or Yankees falter because they couldn’t catch up with the Mariners.
• If the Mariners go 2-1, they would need the Red Sox to lose at least once in Washington to force a tiebreaker. If the Yankees are swept away by the Rays, they would fall into a tiebreaker situation with New York. This scenario also gives the Blue Jays the opportunity to work their way through a three- or four-team tie-breaker situation.
• If the Mariners do 1-2 or 0-3, they’ll have to rely on the Nationals and the Orioles to play the spoiler against the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Losing a couple of games to the Angels would be disastrous and require a bunch of miracles to get the Mariners to the playoffs.

For all the details and permutations of the different tie-breaking situations, read Jay Jaffe’s latest entry in the Team Entropy series – it also includes a fascinating review of the Mariners’ playoff odds and race differential. Obviously, the easiest path for the Mariners is to simply sweep the Angels away, but even if they lose once, there are still several paths to a tie-breaking game open to them. If a tie-breaker game is required, the Mariners are at a significant disadvantage as they lost their season streak to the Yankees and Red Sox. They have the advantage against the Blue Jays, but a tiebreaker against them is not as likely.

What a difference sequencing makes. To watch the comparison between Anaheim and the Seattle Mariners, you’d be hard pressed to see why this series matters to either club. The Angels have been below par throughout LA, but their results have depended on the health and quality of their stars and their top prospects. Without Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Justin Upton, Dexter Fowler, Jo Adell, Patrick Sandoval, Griffin Canning, Chris Rodriguez, Taylor Ward, Andrew Heaney and many other pieces of depth by injury, trade or DFA, this list is far from being the playoff contender they threatened before the season, and even lagging behind their season numbers in many ways. A saving grace has been Raisel Iglesias, a true closer dominant who is set to make a mint this winter, and some decent arms from the bullpen of Steve Cishek, Mike Mayers and perhaps the recent arrival of Austin Warren are helping. to fill the pen competently. Seattle has managed to keep the game out of Iglesias’ clutches in 13 of their 16 encounters with the Angels so far, and keeping him languishing in the pen for their last three games would be exceptional practice.

I do not know what to tell you. It was in contention with the Astros for the division’s scariest roster in April. The aforementioned ~ five above average hitters are made for the year. David Fletcher has completely pumpkin. Luis Rengifo is asked to cover shortstop duties with Jack Mayfield, for which neither are well qualified. Jared Walsh remains an excellent development success and Max Stassi is still dangerous, but the main threat to this formation is of course the alleged MVP, Shohei Ohtani. It’s not pride, it’s factual recognition: The Angels lineup is miserable like Seattle’s was for much of the first half of the season (now that’s perfect, don’t check not FanGraphs, trust me). Any collection of hitters in the league is unequivocally dangerous – this same group has bombarded Tyler Anderson and co. for 14 runs less than a week ago! But even since Seattle last saw them, Anaheim’s doomed nature has caught two more of them: RHP sturdy arm Jaime Barría and sturdy C / 3B / OF Taylor Ward will miss the series. due to injury. Avoid Ohtani, get over the rest, ignore the lamentations of those who wish for a last tape measure explosion pass’ Ol Tungsten Arm unless they’ve built a big dike that doesn’t require Sewald.

Probable pitchers

Updated content + Explanation

Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

From a preview of the previous series:

A former Angels system prospect, José Suarez struggled to adjust to the majors for three seasons. At only 23, he has plenty of time to continue to develop and it looks like the Angels have finally given him the opportunity to prove himself in the rotation for now. He has a decent fastball which he throws about half the time with his best secondary offering an above average change. It also spins a good curved ball which is used more to generate weak ground contact rather than puffs.

The Mariners were able to handle Suarez with skill in their last series against the Angels. He allowed four runs in five innings, striking out just one batter.

In his second major-league appearance, Jhonathan Diaz limited the Mariners to one run in a seven-innings relief appearance after Jaime Barria left with an injury. Initially signed as an international free agent at 16 by the Red Sox, he left their organization as a free agent after last season. He signed a minor league contract with the Angels and was assigned to Double-A to start the year. He’s done well, posting the highest strikeout rate of his minor league career at this level. He was promoted to triple A for three starts and made his major league debut on September 17. He has an above average slurvy slider and mixes a medium lead and a shift to complete his repertoire.

The Angels haven’t announced a starter for Sunday’s game, but they have made it clear that Shohei Ohtani will not make another appearance on the mound this season. There are a bunch of options in Triple-A that could make a final departure for Los Angeles; Reid Detmers is the most likely candidate but Janson Junk, Packy Naughton or Chris Rodriguez could also be called. Detmers was the Angels’ first-round pick in the 2020 draft and he quickly made his way to the majors just a year after being drafted. He implemented showy strikethrough numbers in the minors, but struggled with his first taste of the major. He’s got a pair of good breaking balls, but his fastball was absolutely crushed by the major league hitters.

The big picture:

I’ve laid out the various playoff scenarios above, but just to reiterate, the Mariners are backing the Nationals against the Red Sox, the Orioles against the Blue Jays, and the Rays against the Yankees.