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The national ADP report on May's employment deserves to be examined because the numbers are a bit shocking, at least compared to consensus estimates.
Compared to the BLS, the ADP is sometimes much higher and sometimes much lower. Misses, assuming that the BLS is accurate (not necessarily a good guess), seems to be random.
ADP vs BLS
ADP and the BLS both strongly revise the numbers over time, so the numbers end up converging.
Trend change or outlier?
averages
- The average for the year is 188.
- The 3-month average is 152.
- The average over 2 months is 149.
If it's an outlier, then any one of the averages is a better indicator than judging the total over a month.
Consensus estimates
- The consensus of Econoday on the ADP was 175,000 jobs.
- The Econoday consensus for the BLS is estimated at 180,000 jobs.
Jobs vs Employment
Last month, the BLS said that jobs had increased by +263,000 but that employment had declined by 103,000.
During the past year, the difference between jobs and employment was 1,191,000. That's a difference of $ 99,250 each month, in favor of jobs.
In this regard, 27,000 does not seem shocking any more.
I suspect that the BLS and ADP count twice part-time jobs. Neither weeds on Duplicate Social Security numbers.
We hear the BLS on Friday.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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