Should browsers be looking to trade for Blake Snell, the 2018 AL Cy Young?

Of all that happened in the 2020 MLB Playoffs, one moment was by far the most interesting for those who follow the Seattle Mariners.

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In Game 6 of the World Series, 2018 American League Cy Young League winner Blake Snell had five shutout innings for the Tampa Bay Rays against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Then he gave up a hit with a putout in the sixth inning, and just like that he was out of play.

Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash handed the ball to reliever Nick Anderson, who immediately spat out the Rays’ 1-0 lead, and the Dodgers won 3-1 for the decisive win of the series.

Snell said he was “definitely disappointed and upset” after the game, although he added that he was not going to question his coach. But given that Snell is on the verge of making a lot more money for the notoriously cash-strapped Rays, has commented in the past about his worth and what Tampa Bay is willing to pay him, and Growing up as a Mariners fan on neighboring Shoreline, it got Mariners fans thinking.

Well, it looks like we’ve reached the next step.

According to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, the Rays are open to trading Snell this offseason. And in his report, Feinsand directly names the Mariners and general manager Jerry Dipoto as potential suitors.

We put the team at 710Sports.com – editor Brent cap, writer Brandon gustafsonand 710 ESPN Seattle Mariners insider Shannon Drayer – on the case to break down three big questions about Snell and the possibility of the M’s digging into their prospect cache to bring him home.

Question # 1: What should you know about Snell?

Snell is certainly talented, there is no doubt about it. The 28-year-old southpaw has been an ace for the Rays at times, and it wasn’t more evident than in 2018 when he became the franchise’s first winner in 20 games. He went 21-5 with a league-leading 1.81 ERA in 31 starts. He also had a 0.974 WHIP, struck out 221 and was the best in the AL with a 217+ ERA and 5.6 hits per nine innings.

It was also the year Snell put on a show against his hometown team, knocking out 12 Mariners at T-Mobile Park, including seven in a row to start the game, which tied an AL record.

Snell had ERAs above 4 in both the season before and after his victory over Cy Young, however, but he rebounded in 2020, going 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 63 strikeouts. batting in 11 starts (50 innings). He’s also been impressive in six playoff starts, going 2-2 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 37 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings.

As strong as his CV is, there are questions about Snell’s durability and the overall health of the arm. He’s pitched over 130 innings in a season just once, hasn’t pitched six innings once in a game in 2020, and his career high for innings in a game is only 7 1/3 – although it can mostly be chalked to the way Tampa Bay manages its pitching staff. A more serious concern is the fact that he missed the time in 2019 due to elbow surgery to remove “loose bodies” in his pitch arm.

Now, why would the Rays be looking to trade Snell? Silver. They’ve always been a frugal team, and although Snell signed a five-year extension of $ 50million after 2018, this deal is heavily loaded, so he’s not starting to earn the majority of the money he’s owed. before this year. Per Spotrac, he made $ 1 million in 2019 and had a base salary of $ 7 million in 2020 (which has been adjusted to just under $ 3.2 million due to the shortened season). He is expected to earn $ 10.5 million in 2021, $ 12.5 million in 2022, and $ 16 million in 2023.

6-foot-5, 225-pound Snell turns 28 on December 4. He played at Shorewood High School and turned pro after high school as the Rays’ first-round pick. He’s a visibly avid UW Huskies fan if you follow him on Twitter.

– Brent sheet

Question # 2: What would a Mariners for Snell swap look like?

Anytime you envision a trade involving the Mariners and a top player, you’re naturally going to look to outfielders Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodríguez. Does that mean they would be needed to acquire a player like Blake Snell? No, but any team doing their job would at least inquire about their availability.

Acquiring a player like Snell, who has only had one elite season, was injured and signed for over $ 40 million for the next three seasons, would naturally cause the Mariners to say ‘no hand’ in Regarding their top prospects, both are in the MLB Pipeline top 20 heading into 2021.

So look at the last three first-round picks of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Emerson Hancock’s Mariners, who are each in the Top 100 Prospects but are not viewed in the same way as a Kelenic or Rodríguez. Even then, the price may be too high for Dipoto and his company to pull the trigger, because with one of them you’ll be giving up on a pitcher that throws a lot of hits, has a high floor and good makeup. , and is considered a fast riser.

So comes the prospect that would make the most sense to be traded for any type of established player, and that’s outfielder Taylor Trammell. A 2016 first-round pick that was drafted by the Reds, traded to the San Diego Padres in 2019, and then traded again to the Mariners at the 2020 trade deadline as part of an eight-man deal, Trammell is still highly regarded as number one in MLB Pipeline. 51 global perspective. Why would the Mariners agree to give up a player of this magnitude for Snell? I have already mentioned them: Kelenic and Rodríguez. When you add them to reigning AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis who should be a mainstay for years to come, Seattle appears to be in the outfield for the future, which could leave Trammell as an odd man.

If you’re the Mariners, Trammell is probably as high as you would go as far as the prospect side, and you’ll probably have to pack him up with someone else who thinks pretty well in prospect circles. Those names include wide receiver Cal Raleigh, pitchers Isaiah Campbell or Brandon Williamson, or maybe even Juan Then, who the Mariners recently added to the 40-man roster to protect themselves from the Rule 5 draft. If the Rays wanted talents that are already in the big leagues, maybe someone like Justin Dunn, who just finished his rookie campaign, is intriguing.

The main point is that if the Mariners pull the trigger, Kelenic, Rodríguez, Gilbert, Kirby and Hancock’s five could be off the table.

A good trade in the past to see how a Mariners trade for Snell could go down is when the Rays traded ace David Price in 2014 to the Detroit Tigers. Price was a season and a half away from winning the 2012 Cy Young, much like how Snell won the award in 2018. In that deal, which also involved the Mariners, one of left-handed pitcher Drew Smyly’s top 100 prospects and a The raw and skillful young infielder of Willy Adames has moved from Detroit to Tampa Bay. The Mariners also sent a former top prospect for infielder Nick Franklin, who wrestled in the majors with Seattle, to Tampa Bay so they could get veteran outfielder Austin Jackson of the Tigers to secure the deal at three teams.

– Brandon Gustafson

Question # 3: Does Snell Make Sense To The Mariners?

Add a good starter? Well, certainly. Of course. When is not it? At what cost, however? Ah, well, that’s the real question here.

In making this decision, it’s important not to get carried away in the “Shoreline” under the name on its Baseball-Reference page or the “CYA-1” at the end of its 2018 column. awesome and he might want to play here, but that won’t have any impact on whether the Rays choose to send him to Seattle or not. As for the Cy Young award on his coat, there’s no denying Snell’s talent, but his 2018 season is just one piece of the puzzle.

The years left on the contract (three) and the remaining dollars ($ 41 million) fit well with the Mariners’ plans, but they also suit the Rays well in the short term. They don’t have to trade it right now. With market uncertainty as the pandemic season exits and fans’ uncertainty in the stands in 2021, they are well positioned to see what happens. It could go either way, and barring injury or total collapse, its value will still be very strong at maturity. The Rays are looking for more here.

Should or should the Mariners go further? If that means Julio Rodríguez, Jarred Kelenic, Logan Gilbert or Noelvi Marte the answer is an emphatic no, and if the story is any indicator of what it might look like, I doubt it’s one for two or three or whatever. . Trading with the Rays is rarely this boring, and while familiarity with trading with Rays general manager Erik Neander is cited when the Mariners’ name pops up as a possibility, go take a look. Most of those trades haven’t really worked out well for the Mariners.

I suspect that if anything were to be done it would involve more of a bundle of a lower wave of potential talent that the Mariners have than the names listed above. Chances are very good that with the success the Rays have had in assessing and growing talent, they are “hitting” those names, but at some point that has to be OK. Much of the value of having a top tier farm system is having good players who give you good players – which brings us back to: Would that make sense?

Well, just like the Rays are in a place where they don’t have to make a move right now, I tend to think the Mariners actually need a little more time before they do such. movements. A half-season could go a long way in determining what they have and what they have to come, which would further define what they need. This moment would also help further define what exactly Snell is and what you would be comfortable giving up for him. At this point, I don’t see Snell being the type of player who went bankrupt and broke prospects the Rays are likely to want to be paid for.

But if the price is right …

– Shannon Drayer

Shannon Drayer’s latest Mariners Insider podcast