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* Severe thunderstorm for southern Maryland and Stafford County, and points south to 22 hours. *
16:15 – Threat of storm and bad weather is low in the immediate area of Washington
The radar shows mainly scattered rain showers from the west approaching the region, some of which fade on approach. In general, we do not expect extreme weather conditions to materialize tonight in the immediate area of Washington. Rather, we consider the possibility of showers, with some irregular thunderclaps and short showers in the mix.
The lack of sunshine prevented the development of thunderstorms, reducing the instability required for more widespread and intense storms.
But to the south, heading east-central Virginia (mainly from Fredericksburg south) to southern southern Maryland, scattered thunderstorms, ranging from strong to severe, are a good choice for the evening.
Unless there is an increase in the coverage and intensity of storms in the Washington area, this will be the last update of this message. Stay tuned for our PM newscast, which will be out around 5 pm, for detailed prospects until Thursday night.
14:40 – Watch for severe thunderstorms in southern Maryland, north-central Virginia, and south
The National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm alert in areas south and southeast of Washington, including southern Maryland and Stafford County, Virginia, and south. In effect until 10 pm, the weather service says "storm"[a]The activity's coverage should continue to increase throughout the afternoon, with strong winds and hail possible in the strongest cells. "
Fredericksburg, Salisbury, Waldof and La Plata are included in the surveillance zone, which extends from south to southeast across Richmond and Raleigh.
Severe storm surveillance means that conditions are favorable for severe storms in the area being monitored – be alert and plan for shelter, if necessary. This is not a guarantee of storms. If, however, a violent storm Warning is issued for your area, it means that a dangerous storm is imminent and you must seek shelter.
The mere fact that the immediate area of Washington and the northern suburbs are not in the storm monitoring zone does not mean that we will not see storms and that this does not exclude the possibility of severe storms. But, in general, storms should be fewer and less intense than those further south.
2:00 p.m.. – Best chance of strong or violent storms south, southeast and east of Washington
The National Weather Service says it's likely to trigger a severe thunderstorm in areas just south and southeast of Washington for the late afternoon and evening. Storms are possible anywhere in the region, but it is in this zone that the atmospheric instability is the strongest and that the storms should be the most numerous and the most intense.
A simulation of the HRRR model, illustrated below, supports this general idea:
Radar simulated from an HRRR model showing projected storms moving into the Washington area Wednesday afternoon and evening. This is just a template and the location, movement and timing of the storm will be different.
Original message from noon
After two days of sunny and pleasantly dry weather, the humidity rate jumped, paving the way for possible thunderstorms late this afternoon and early this evening around the Washington area.
Although strong storms may end up being somewhat isolated, the storm line may coincide with that of noon. commute, potentially unleashing showers, lightning and gusty winds.
If storms reach their full potential, pockets of wind gusts and small hail are possible. However, limited sunlight can reduce the amount of energy available for storm development, resulting in fewer and less intense storms.
Storm dashboard
Approximate arrival time:
- From 2.30 pm to 4.30 pm in the western areas.
- From 3:30 pm to 5:30 pm in the immediate area, including Capital Beltway.
- 16:30 to 18:30 in areas east of Interstate 95.
Everything is clear: after sunset.
Duration of the storm: approximately 30 to 45 minutes.
Risks of measurable rainfall regardless of location: 60 percent.
Storm movement: from west to east.
Probable storm effects: heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds.
Possible storm effects: wind gusts damaging, small hail.
Precipitation potential: very variable. Locally up to an inch or more in the strongest storms.
Discussion
A higher-level disturbance approaching the region later today that could help start a line or a broken line of storms
Their strength will depend on the degree of stability of the atmosphere and wind shear (increase of wind speed with altitude) to help with the organization and intensification of storm cells.
The National Meteorological Service 's Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a marginal risk zone for severe storms, which is one in five on the threat scale. A higher risk level 2 out of 5 (a slight risk) is located just south and southeast of the immediate Washington area.
High-level clouds have poured into the area, which has filtered the sun a bit, and scattered showers can pass through, thanks to a weak disturbance of the upper atmosphere. These factors will initially reduce destabilization.
If the filtered sun breaks a little stronger, respectable levels of energy available by convection (buoyancy for updrafts in the clouds) can still develop. This is a factor we will have to monitor all afternoon. In fact, the models generally predict that healthy quantities will be present later this afternoon.
According to the Storm Prediction Center, the greatest destabilization will occur in southern BC, hence the higher risk of severe storms in this region.
The other factor in the equation of the storm is the wind shear. This morning, the weather balloon Dulles measured a fairly robust number (43 knots). Forecasts for the end of the afternoon decrease the shear somewhat to 30-35 knots.
The combination of instability and shear could push some storms into the hard to severe range. The main threats during these storms will be strong gusts of wind, small hail and short and heavy showers.
Stay tuned for updates, which will be published at the top of this article.
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