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Remember when we were told that the Y2K bug was going to cause the disruption of the navigation equipment and the crash of sky planes?
Part of the apocalyptic panic attached to the Brexit commentary is also hysterical and probably equally reliable.
Michael O 'Ryanair Leary does not make massive losses but the boss of the second largest European airline warned that all flights between the UK and Europe could be suspended once that Britain will have left the European Union.
In this dystopian nightmare, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire predicts that Paris will replace London as the world's financial center as banks and insurance companies flee the city.
He has since clarified his comments so that no one would suggest that France be "predators" trying to use Brexit to take jobs in London. "It's about (make France) more attractive – all this in the context of fair competition."
The UK Department of Exit from the European Union modeled three possible scenarios for a "deal-free" Brexit: Light, Severe and "Armageddon". A rapid breakdown without agreed arrangements for the movement of capital, goods and people could disrupt the operation of the port of Dover that would lead to Britain suffering from critical shortages of medicines, food and fuel.
"none of this would happen".
Brexit by name only?
Being part of the EU gives Britain membership in the customs union and access to the single market. Removing these privileges scares many economists and politicians more than anything else.
Unlike a free trade agreement, the single market allows businesses in 28 countries to buy and sell goods entirely duty-free. EU countries The customs union harmonizes product regulations across the bloc and eliminates the need for border controls. It is this element of the business relationship that guarantees unfettered access to each other's markets.
Prime Minister Theresa May's white paper detailing her vision of the EU / UK relationship after Brexit proposes to move away from the single market while remaining in the union customs.
This arrangement has been criticized by economists for free trade. The group of 18 economists, professors and former member of the European Parliament called Prime Minister BRINO-Brexit's plan by name only and termed the half-exercise half a "suicide mission"
. The Prime Minister's prime concern is the Prime Minister's determination to remain at the mercy of strict EU regulation without having a say in regulation.
Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit Secretary David Davis resigned the betrayal of 52% of Britons who voted for a clean break from the EU
Addressing the House Commons, Mr. Johnson said that a "fog of self-doubt" had come down on Theresa May's government.
A "smart border"
The former Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern warned that the return to any kind of border between Northern Ireland (part of the United Kingdom) and Northern Ireland. eland (an independent country of the EU) would inevitably provoke violence and undermine a hard-won peace.
Earlier this year, former Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Hain declared that a hard border separating the two Irelands "opens the door to the return of terrorism".
There does not seem to be any intrinsic reason for a hard boundary across the 500 kilometer crossing between Ireland and Northern Ireland . The customs control process should not be expensive, as companies themselves indicate that they can be largely managed with advanced point-of-sale and receipt technologies.
A report commissioned by the European Parliament suggests that the "Smart Border" solution adopts global best practice initiatives such as automatic license plate recognition, enhanced driver's licenses, barcode scanning and # 39; s use of intelligent applications can eliminate the need to establish a strict physical boundary.
and New Zealand as an example of international standards likely to apply in Northern Ireland. The report recognizes the use of technology, including biometrics, to accelerate the movement of citizens between their respective countries.
Shanker Singham, director of the international trade and competition unit of the British Conservative think tank Institute of Economic Affairs, says: there is political will on both sides to avoid the need for a hard border .
Flaming rhetoric about a return to shootings and riots "is not constructive and deals with emotion rather than facts," he said. the discussion may sometimes seem to be based on the assumption that there is currently no border on the island of Ireland, which is simply not true.
"The current border marks the border between two different jurisdictions.Many things fundamental to everyday life change when someone crosses the border – education, health services, minimum wages and aspects of labor legislation, excise rates and personal taxation, for example. "
The end of a 45-year marriage
Jaguar Land Rover warned that a tough Brexit was threatening the future viability of the company. With new rates that are expected to increase production costs by $ 2.1 billion a year.
This assumes that what Britain loses in Europe can not be achieved with FTAs with other nations.
The free trade agreement between Canada and the EU came into force last year, canceling 98 percent of tariffs between the two trading partners
. Similarly for 871 billion dollars, bilateral trade between the UK and the EU is worth six times more than EU trade with Canada.
Europe has a trade surplus of 124 billion dollars with the United Kingdom. EU countries have a lot to lose from a break in relations with Britain. US economist and Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz is baffled by suggestions that the European Commission will adopt a punitive approach to Brexit negotiations with Britain. "It would not be in Europe's interest to do that."
Professor Stiglitz believes that Britain and the EU will find themselves in a relationship similar to that enjoyed by Canada and the United States. Instead of a single market, the pair operates a frictionless border and a mutually beneficial free trade agreement.
"The United Kingdom should not be worse off than Canada with the United States."
to be anything but messy and emotional, but apocalyptic? Improbable
Emma Alberici is chief correspondent of the economy and former correspondent of ABC Europe.
Topics:
business-economics-and-finance
world politics,
Government and politics,
globalization — economy,
International aid-and-trade,
UK,
European Union
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