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New Delhi: The conviction of former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his daughter by an anti-corruption court may have conferred on the ruling party a "victim card", but the chances of to play with it electorally in the next parliamentary elections.
The liability court has given its verdict on the Avenfield House reference, which refers to four apartments in London. The case was among the three filed by the National Bureau of Liability (NAB) – the anti-corruption agency of Pakistan – against Sharif and his family on the guidelines of the Supreme Court ruling of July 2017 that had also removed the prime minister from power.
On Friday, the court sentenced Sharif to ten years in prison and fined him eight million pounds, while his daughter Maryam Nawaz Sharif was sentenced to seven years and fined two million pounds . Sharif's son-in-law and Maryam's husband, Safdar, were sentenced to one year's imprisonment for non-cooperation with NAB. London properties have also been confiscated.
Nawaz Sharif and her daughter are both in London, where their wife, Kulsoom Nawaz, is being treated.
Hours after the verdict, Sharif said he was ready to return to Pakistan. "In front of the prison" Blaming the security establishment for targeting him, he said, "I will continue my fight until the people of Pakistan are freed from slavery imposed by certain generals and judges." 19659002] According to the former Indian Ambassador to Pakistan, TCA Raghavan, there is a "huge vendetta" against Sharif in the latest development.
"It is no one's case that these properties were acquired legally totally, but the transactions returned to the 1990s," he said The Wire . He said that the army had collected the "dirt" on Sharif before it was staged during a coup, but General Pervez Musharraf "could not use it because the Saudis were bending over him to let him go "
. Echoing this view, Sharat Sabharwal, who had been the man of India in Islamabad from 2009 to 2013, said that the lack of probity in public life in Pakistan was not in question. "But the question here was how the whole process was done, you know, the removal of the prime minister's office for very fragile and subjective reasons, and then with the Supreme Court asking the court to be accountable for speeding up the Business and the deadline was so tight, it was clear that they were supposed to get a verdict before the elections, "he said, adding that it was on the expected lines. 19659002] The court's order of liability means that Maryam Nawaz Sharif can not stand in the next election. Raghavan, who was stationed in Islamabad from 2013 to 2015, said the bottom line seems to be that the establishment does not want the Pakistani Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML-N) to regain power. "His party should not get the majority."
Nawaz Sharif (R) with his daughter Maryam Nawaz. Credit: Reuters / Faisal Mahmood
Michael Kugelman of Wilson Center said that the interpretation of the order will obviously be viewed from the political angle by the opponents and supporters of Sharif. He noted that supporters will no doubt see Friday's developments as a case of "selective justice – a leader being disproportionately penalized for an alleged crime that pales in comparison to those committed by many other leaders who are not guilty of". have never even been hit on the wrist ". The chief cook, he noted, was that "any future Pakistani civilian leader who is pushing back the security services in a massive way could suffer the same fate as Nawaz Sharif."
"In the past, there were coups d'état.At the present time, the tactics of choice seem to be more secretive, but no less dramatic, coups d'etat," added Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia program and senior associate for Southeast Asia at Washington-based think tank Wilson Center
.] From London, the Sharifs have already indicated that they would describe the verdict as a political targeting.Maryam tweeted in the minutes that followed the court's order of responsibility, that it was not a great punishment for "standing up to the invisible forces
Optics of the sentence
The "victim card" would certainly be used by PML-N, Sabharwal was not sure of its effectiveness. "That will motivate his supporters to be more numerous.
Ajay Darshan Behera, a Pakistani scholar at the Academy of International Studies at Jamia Millia Islamia University, noted that for the victim card to be effective, the PML-N will have to "delegitimize" the court.
"Just as in South Asia, corruption has never been a big problem for the electorate. People with corruption cases have always come back and won elections, from Zardari to Sharif. But the optics of the conviction is also important in public perception, "he said.
Behera stated that the PML-N could be a long way to discredit the judgment, since the considered as a reliable institution. "If you have to delegitimize the court, there is no way to prove that the decision was at the request of the army. This is not public information.
Photo of a supporter's record of Nawaz Sharif waving his portrait. Credit: Reuters
Votes of sympathy
Pakistani People's Party (PPP) co-chair Asif Ali Zardari said the PML-N would benefit from the verdict by obtaining sympathy votes. Another PPP leader, Khursheed Shah, said the decision should have been announced too close to the elections, which could also benefit Nawaz Sharif.
Sherry Rehman, his party colleague, was more critical of Sharif, saying the PML-N leader was jeopardizing the democratic system by questioning the decision and the electoral process. She also accused Sharif of having troubled his brother Shahbaz Sharif, who ran the party.
Shahbaz Sharif described the day of the judgment as a "black day" at his press conference, but unlike his brother and niece
The "Victimization Story" would certainly be used by the PML-N but the walls have closed on the party for a long time, which may have left it very high. depleted. "In reality, the party has been reduced to the point that the use of this strategy will probably not be enough … It will be necessary to count on a party base inflamed by the condemnation of Sharif and on a still strong system of favoritism that can deliver votes. in a big way. The good news for the PML-N is that the slot machine continues to hum, even as it faces more and more challenges, "said Kugelman
. protests in various cities after the court's decision, but there has been no extensive reporting on the protests so far.
Proponents of the Pakistani Muslim League -Nawaz brandish slogans to condemn the court's verdict on a corruption case against ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his daughter, at a protest at Islamabad, Pakistan July 6, 2018.Credit: / Faisal Mahmood
Imran Khan Advantage & # 39; [19659002] According to Behera, it will be "Imran Khan's advantage" in the elections, with the former cricket captain exploiting the judgment to show that the nation's "looters" of wealth have finally been punished.
D 26 (one day after the July 25 general election). a Naya Pakistan in which dacoits will go to jail, not to parliament, "said Khan at a campaign rally in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province Friday after court orders became public.
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) a slight lead over PML-N, a big change since the last elections of 2013.
Sabharwal felt that the electoral field was so sharply inclined against the PML-N "because actions of the security establishment it would not be correct to expect the election to be free and fair.
Imran Khan, leader of Tehreek-e-Insaf in Pakistan. Credit: Reuters
The main unpredictability of the elections, he thought, was the magnitude of the sympathy vote that the PML-N would receive.
For the army, a pure and simple victory for PTI would only be the second choice. "Ideally, the army would like a situation where there is no majority party, not even Imran Khan, so that they can create a coalition of their own choosing," he said. Sabharwal.
The Military as a Power Broker
From the blue-eyed boy of General Zia-ul-Haq to be considered a threat to the military establishment, Sharif's trip is symptomatic of the distance that civil policy has covered. "This is the big change in Pakistani politics … that politicians want to expand the space available to them.It is the number one enemy of the establishment," said Raghavan.
. Over the years, Pakistani political parties have realized that their fortunes are closely linked to the army. "Politicians are aware that the military is the key institution that can bring them to power.This is why the army had always had supporters within the political class In the rivalry between political parties, politicians have allowed the army to act as a potential broker, "said Behera.
General Musharraf's regime finally united the PPP and the PML-N to form a coalition. "The realization has been that if political parties continue to fare, the military will continue to rule," he added.
But these lessons do not apply in the current context – with the Pakistani army wielding power without the need to overthrow a civilian government.
"Pakistani political parties know – and today's conviction is a sobering reminder – that their fortunes are closely related to their positions towards the military. give ground to the army on key political issues, you will quickly lose political space and political influence.It's as simple as that, "said Kugelman
. After the general elections of 2008, the PPP came to power, Zardari had to maneuver in the minefields, but has not yet alienated the army. This was not the reason why the PPP could not reign during these five years. There have been several attempts to derail the government. His prime minister was kidnapped by the court at the request of the army. Remember the Hussain Haqqani episode? But, he managed to stay, despite the missteps, "said Behera.
Sharif clashes with the army
On the other hand, Sharif was unable to fulfill any of his three tenure as prime minister. "Whenever he was prime minister, Nawaz Sharif had a very difficult relationship with his own chief of staff," said Sabharwal, adding that There was a lack of mutual trust
. "When Sharif was talking about good relations with India, it was for him a way to reduce the salience of the army. because the army retains its salience by promoting India bogey … So for a politician like Nawaz Sharif, he thinks that he can stabilize the relationship (with the l. India), this will bring down the army a little bit. That's exactly what they (the army) do not want, "said Sabharwal
.Another factor for Sharif and the military establishment rubbing one against the other. the other was that they were both competing on the same parcel of land. "He is fighting for popularity in Punjab with the army. The army is also based in Punjab and has grown its influence in the Punjab, while Nawaz Sharif as a politician hunting the same land, "he noted.
The large number of candidates lined up by the fronts extremist and terrorist group policies like Jamaat Ud Dawa and Tehree-e-Labaik Pakistan, were also backed by the army to defeat Sharif, argued Sabharwal. "The agenda is to cut in his vote in Punjab and clogging waters "
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