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WASHINGTON (WASHINGTON POST) – In the run-up to Tuesday's decisive mid-term elections (Nov. 6), Democrats retain their edge in the battle for the House, but Republicans could be encouraged by further assessments. More positive of the economy and by the determination of President Donald Trump the issues of immigration and border security, according to a new national poll Washington Post-ABC News.
The survey reveals that registered voters prefer Democratic candidates to the House of Republican candidates by 50 to 43 percent.
This marks a slight decrease from last month, as Democrats led 11 points on the congressional poll, and a larger drop from August, when they benefited from the same. a 14-point advantage.
Democrats also have a 51 to 44 percent advantage among potential voters identified by the Washington Post.
This seven-point margin, which is consistent with other polls over the last two weeks, puts Democrats roughly at the level of what they will likely need in the general national vote for Parliament to get a majority of Republicans, according to reports. calculations of previous campaigns in the medium term.
However, there is no way to convert national numbers into a district-by-district competition that will ultimately decide who will control the House in January.
Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to seize control of the House. Public and private polls of different races conducted by candidates, political party committees, the media and others show many contests still within the margin of error.
Republican candidates in competitive constituencies, nearly one-third of whom supported Hillary Clinton in 2016, are likely to be driven by the president's unpopularity.
Presidents whose approval ratings are as low as Trump's have generally suffered significant losses in the mid-term elections. But this president has shown over time that historical statistical benchmarks do not always apply to him.
Trump's approval rate among all adults is 40%, stable compared to a survey in early October and slightly higher than the 36% rate obtained in August. Those who disapprove represent 53%.
Mr. Trump's approval is 44%, with a disapproval of 52%, the best margin among this group during his presidency.
All mid-term elections are a referendum on the incumbent president, and Mr. Trump has made him this election more than most presidents, insisting in his election rallies for voters to move closer to the election as if he was registered on the ballot.
But the elections also tend to reflect the conceptions of the economy and that of Tuesday is testing the tension between the president's perceptions and the perceptions of the economy.
There has rarely been such a great distance between views of the economy and the notations of a president as this year.
On Friday, the Department of Labor's monthly employment report produced a series of positive figures: another month with an unemployment rate of 3.7%, the lowest rate in half a century; 250,000 jobs added to the labor force; and wages registering the largest increase in almost a decade and faster than inflation.
The Washington Post-ABC News poll ran from Monday to Thursday last week, the day before the job statistics announcement. It reveals the most optimistic attitudes towards the economy for nearly two decades, with 65% of Americans rating the state of the economy as good or excellent and 34% of them offering a negative rating.
The last time that optimism was so high, it was in January 2001.
71% of registered voters said the economy was good or excellent, up from 60% in August. Those who give a positive rating to the economy favor Republican candidates in the House 54 to 40%, which is higher than the margin of 49 to 42% in August.
Similarly, more than eight in ten adults report doing the same thing financially before Mr. Trump's appointment as president (60%) or better (25%).
Only 13% say that they are not as well off. This figure of 13% is also among the lowest in 18 years; The last time this trough was reached, it was during the last year of President Bill Clinton 's administration, when a technology boom fueled a growing economy.
Republican candidates have tried to focus on the economy in their campaigns, but they have sometimes been overwhelmed by presidential rhetoric and by the Democrats' virulent attacks on the issue of health care, which has put on the defensive.
The President took advantage of the last weeks of the medium-term campaign to hit immigration more than any other issue.
He warned of the threats of a caravan of Central Americans who are in southern Mexico and are heading north. He ordered that federal troops be deployed to the border in response.
Earlier last week, Mr. Trump promoted an inflammatory video featuring an undocumented and unrepentant immigrant who killed two law enforcement officers.
The video was meant to make him a face of the migrant caravan, even if he's in jail, and to blame the Democrats for his actions. Democrats, in turn, denounced advertising as racist.
The president's emphasis on immigration seems to have raised the importance of the issue in the minds of his party's voters before Tuesday's vote.
Since a poll conducted by Post-ABC News three weeks ago, the proportion of Republicans claiming that immigration is "one of the most important points" in their vote has gone from 14% to 21% .
The proportion of Democrats claiming that immigration is a major problem has fallen from 23% to 11%.
When all voters were asked which party they trusted more to manage immigration, Democrats were slightly favored by 47 to 42 percent compared to Republicans. But with respect to border security, which has been the president's main concern, Republican confidence has increased from 49% to 39%.
Those who consider immigration as one of the most important issues of the election favor Republicans over Democrats by 12 points when choosing a generic candidate in Congress, although the gap between this group is tenuous given its significant margin of error.
For those who argue that border security is one of their biggest problems, Republicans are leading Democrats by 42 points on the vote in the House.
Groups that have been turning to Republicans on immigration issues since early October include white men with no university degree, voters over 65 and voters living in rural areas – all pillars of the coalition who elected the president two years ago.
Democrats hold an almost as important lead – 39 points – among voters who rank health care as one of the most important issues.
They are ahead of 69 points for those for whom global warming is one of the most important problems and 46 points for those who say that the reduction of divisions in the country is a major problem.
Overall, 17% of voters consider health care and the reduction of divisions in the country to be among the most important issues – about the same as the economy (15%) and immigration (14%). ).
When voters consider the issues to be at least "very important", health care and the economy top the list with 78% and 76% respectively, followed by a reduction in political divisions and immigration , taxes, border security and global warming.
The presidential approval is closely related to the voters' vote and the poll highlights this relationship. 87% of those who approve of Mr. Trump say that they support Republicans in the House and 88% of those who disapprove their preference for Democratic House candidates.
Another measure of the polarization of the electorate is the relationship between party identification and voting intentions.
In this poll, 94 percent of Republicans and Republican Independents favor GOP House candidates, and an equal percentage of Democratic Democrats and Independents say they are in favor of their party candidates.
Gender and education continue to divide the electorate. With regard to the vote in the House, men are divided at 47-46% in favor of GOP candidates, while women support Democratic candidates at 54-40%.
White women with a university degree are in favor of Democrat House candidates for 16 points and white men with a university degree support the Democrats by 14 points.
Among whites without a university degree, men are in favor of Republicans by 39 points and women by 12 points.
Young voters aged 18 to 39, who have historically been much smaller than older voters in the mid-term elections, show a clear preference for Democrats, 58 to 35 percent. Those who are between 40 and 65 are almost equally divided.
Of those who say they are certain to vote or have already voted, Democrats have a nine-point advantage, while those who say they will probably vote or the odds are "50-50" swing to Republicans four points, with 10 percent. a hundred indecisive.
The Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted from October 29 to November 1 in a random national sample of 1,255 adults, 65% of which were on mobile phones and 35% on landlines.
The overall results have a sampling error margin of plus or minus three percentage points; the margin of error is 3.5 points on the sample of 1,041 registered voters and 4 points on the sample of 737 likely voters.
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