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Although the suppliers did not mention Apple specifically, the announcements were quickly interpreted by Apple analysts and investors as a possible warning sign of weaker than expected iPhone demand.
Citing the Lumentum cuts, Goldman Sachs analysts expressed “concern” in an investor note Tuesday that “demand for new iPhone models is deteriorating.” Yet in the very next sentence, the analysts said Apple “could easily right itself given the bulk of demand comes in late December.”
Such is the uncertainty that comes with trying to read the tea leaves for the world’s most valuable company. Even dire forecasts from multiple suppliers may not be enough to give a complete and accurate picture of Apple’s sprawling global business.
“Interpreting data points around demand from the supply chain is a dangerous art,” Gene Munster, an analyst with Loup Ventures, told CNN Business. “Historically, investors have drawn the correct conclusion as many times as the wrong one.”
“The Apple growth story being dead has been greatly exaggerated. We’ve seen this many times over the past few years,” Daniel Ives, an analyst with Wedbush, tells CNN Business.
In the three months ending in September, Apple sold just shy of 47 million iPhones, representing virtually no growth in the number of smartphones sold from the prior year. In future quarters, and indeed future years, the number of iPhones Apple sells could decline.
That’s not to say there aren’t real concerns ahead. Earlier this month, Apple said it expects sales in the all-important holiday quarter to come in shy of analyst estimates due in part to foreign exchange headwinds and macroeconomic concerns in emerging markets.
In particular, some analysts have focused on Apple’s traction in China, a key growth market for the company. But Ross Gerber, an activist investor and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki, says his firm has been tracking China sentiment closely and remains optimistic about Apple’s position there.
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