Draft agreement on Brexit: moment of truth for the month of May at the British Cabinet meeting

• Although the firm approves the project, there are several steps that must be taken before it can take effect. The agreement requires the approval of the British Parliament, which is far from certain. The European Parliament and the other 27 bloc member states should also approve it.

• The Irish border is a key bottleneck, a contentious issue for which it is not easy to find a solution, as negotiators try to find a way to let people and goods through without imposing border controls.

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The reaction starts, left and right

Even before the cabinet meeting or the publication of the Brexit draft agreement, the reaction was well under way, with uncompromising conservatives and members of the opposition parties condemning the plan in statements, television interviews and interviews. debates in Parliament.

Critics, both left and right, argue that the agreement would leave Britain under the yoke of the European Union, but without being able to do the same. They are also alarmed by the fact that Britain would not have the unilateral right to exit the temporary customs union.

Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn exchanged fierce words with Premier Theresa May, but declined to give details of the deal.

"From what we know, the government's agreement is a failure on its own terms," ​​Corbyn said. "It's not a Brexit for the whole country, it violates the Prime Minister's red lines."

Ms May countered that the Labor Party had "only one intention, to thwart the Brexit and betray the vote of the British people".

Ms. May's former secretary, David Davis, describes the transaction on Twitter as "EU dominance, imprisonment in the customs union and 2nd class status" and adding that "the Cabinet and all Conservative MPs should stand up, be counted and say no to this capitulation".

Jacob Rees-Mogg, a strong believer in Brexit and a long-time critic of the government's negotiating strategy, told the BBC that the proposed deal was "a failure of the government's negotiating position and an inability to deliver on its commitments." ".

Mr Corbyn, alongside the leaders of the Scottish National Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Welsh party Plaid Cymru, published a letter demanding that Parliament not only vote on the agreement, but that it also be allowed to consider amendments. An upward or downward vote on the negotiated agreement, Corbyn said, would be "a false choice in Parliament between his failed agreement and his absence". – CHATEAU OF STEPHEN and RICHARD PÉREZ-PEÑA

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The question of the Irish border

As the conservative Prime Minister's party does not have a majority in Parliament, his government relies on the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, which has expressed its opposition to the agreement even before it is made public.

The head of the D.P., Arlene Foster, has made it clear in her declaration Tuesday night that she was not happy with the new deal. She was going to London on Wednesday.

Jeffrey Donaldson, a senior legislator of the DUP, went further by declaring to the BBC on Wednesday that he had heard about the draft agreement on Brexit "undermining the constitutional and economic integrity" of the Kingdom. United, and warning that he was not afraid to rush a general election in opposition to the plan.

The Conservatives hold 315 seats in the House of Commons, less than the 326 needed to win an absolute majority, and Ms. May needs the tacit support of the 10-seat U.P., who has campaigned for Brexit. A majority of voters in Northern Ireland opposed it.

The most delicate aspect of this plan is what is called the "safety net" intended to prevent physical checks at the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom. Kingdom, and Ireland, which will remain in the European Union.

According to what is known about this project, Britain would remain temporarily in a customs union with the European Union until a long-term trade agreement be negotiated. However, Northern Ireland's obligations would be heavier, in particular as regards compliance with the standards established by the European Union single market, which would lead to increased regulatory controls on goods moving around the Greater Union. Britain to Northern Ireland.

This is considered an almost existential threat by the U.P., who wants to stay in the UK.

For the DP, voting against May's deal risks precipitating general elections that could bring Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the opposition Labor party, to power. Mr Corbyn has a long-standing and close relationship with Sinn Fein, which promotes a united Ireland.

The U.P. might be less worried about the other possible consequences of the blocking of May's plan, such as a Brexit without agreement, and might conclude that this could strengthen the links between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. He could also calculate that another referendum that would have overthrown Brexit and maintained the status quo would be less questionable than Ms. May's agreement. – STEPHEN CASTLE

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A rhetorical turnaround by Theresa May

Rest in peace, "no agreement is better than a bad deal". Long live the compromise.

Ms. May is not generally perceived as a stealthy political operator, but on Wednesday she announced a brutal reversal of the promise she had made in Brexit. For nearly two years, she has repeatedly told the country in her clear, unadorned manner that "an agreement for Britain was preferable to a bad deal for Britain".

This promise – to leave rather than jeopardize the interests of Britain – has helped her retain the allegiance of the tough Brexiteers in her own party. She was so optimistic and so confident that the pound rose sharply in the hours following her first statement.

But Wednesday, it was clear that Ms. May's message had been a bluff. It has been replaced by the opposite logic, expressed in the most urgent terms: a compromise with the European Union – a set of victories and defeats – is better than not agreed.

Economists and business leaders have warned that an abrupt and "dead end" Brexit, without an agreement to replace its members, could have dire consequences for Britain, including a food shortage and others and sudden price increases. Moderate voices have long called for compromise as the only sensible solution.

Ms. May's rhetorical trick helped keep the uncompromising on board, while transmitting to Brussels, he should give some to avoid a chaotic exit.

But by adopting the language of her party's Euroskeptic right for so long, Ms. May risked a last-minute explosion.

For the Brexiteers, this deal has less to do with practical consequences than with the passion and the principle. Ms. May's categorical words have made them more daring. If they feel cheated, she could pay the price. – ELLEN BARRY

Family alliances separate behind the Brexit drama

The morning papers were full of lawmakers promising that the draft agreement was dead on arrival, but an indicator to the contrary came from an improbable quarter. Sarah Vine, who writes a column in The Daily Mail, responded to the commotion by throwing a sardonic eye. notice on Twitter: "Overall, a lot of happy waves are taking place this morning #Brexitdeal.

To understand the importance of Ms. Vine's line of rejection, one must understand the incestuous nature of British politics in general and the Brexit tragedy in particular.

[Read about the clubby, old-school world of Britain’s Conservative upper echelons.]

In addition to being a columnist for a powerful pro-Brexit tabloid, Ms. Vine is married to Michael Gove, a prominent Brexiteer and member of Prime Minister Theresa May's cabinet, and his remark seemed to confirm that he would support the government. agreement, propelling it to a parallel vote.

It is another reminder that family ties – and conflicts – constitute a central organizing principle of the British elite.

Last week, Jo Johnson, who opposed the Brexit, resigned from the cabinet rather than support the compromise agreement, which, he warned, would lead to a "vassalage".

His older brother, Boris Johnson, also left May's cabinet over the compromise, but for the opposite reason: he is a standard bearer of the conservative Brexit Conservative faction.

Their sister Rachel Johnson, columnist for the Daily Mail, left the Conservative Party in 2017 because she was opposed to Brexit. Their brother, Leo Johnson, opposes Brexit and supports a second referendum.

After a complicated wave of intra-family retweeting, Ms. Johnson pointed out"Maybe one way to settle this matter once and for all is to spare the country and organize a referendum in the Johnson family." – ELLEN BARRY

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A new watery slogan

According to the metaphors of the Brexit canon – divorce, the edge of the cliff, the cake-eater – the negotiators added another: the pool.

As incredible as it may seem, it is as well as Brussels diplomats describe a crucial element of the Brexit deal: deciding on the proximity with Britain and Northern Ireland's market European if Britain and the European Union can not negotiate long trade deal after Brexit, reported journalist Robert Peston.

This pool has two levels. Northern Ireland would be in the depths of European regulation. This would avoid trade with Ireland, which is part of the European Union, thus preventing the return of an Irish border.

But Britain would be in the shallow end. It would remain in the European customs union, like Northern Ireland, but would escape the single market of goods. This would give it some distance from the union's regulations while preventing it from concluding its own trade agreements with non-European countries.

Always with us?

The division between the deep and shallow ends of the pool could be a decisive factor.

This would mean different trade rules within the UK and the prospect of a border – so insignificant as European negotiators insist – in the Irish Sea. – BENJAMIN MUELLER

Brussels looks, waits and amazes

Brussels was nervously following events in London, worried about whether Ms. May could get the deal through her cabinet and Parliament – and what could follow if she could not.

In the offices of the European Union, there is a general but not centered hope that Britain will reverse itself and remain in the fold of Europe, presumably in a second referendum. But there is also deep fatigue, even embarrassment, with this whole issue which, according to other member countries, has diverted attention from pressing issues such as migration, conflict with Russia, possible trade war with the United States, populist dissensions within the bloc and the European elections. Next spring.

At the British cabinet meeting Wednesday afternoon, ambassadors from 27 other EU countries will also be informed of the draft agreement. The agreement should be ratified by the leaders of the member countries and by the European Parliament.

The hope is that the European Union can hold a special summit in Brexit before the end of November to obtain the approval of the agreement and the non-binding political declaration that accompanies them. . Britain must leave the union on March 29th.

The leaks regarding the draft agreement focused on the issue of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The resolution would mean that Britain must adhere to the rules of the European Union without having to put them to the vote, an arrangement that critics have termed "vassalage".

But from the standpoint of the block – a set of rules, laws and regulations – anything that harms the single market is unacceptable, including competition on tariffs and regulations from a non-member, such as Britain will soon be.

If the deal is approved in Britain, both parties must still negotiate a long-term deal on their future trading relationships. – STEVEN ERLANGER

Forecasts and forecasts of the British press

The potential brokers of the British press weighed in on the Brexit file and the verdict was surprisingly stifled.

Formerly a fierce and furious miller, fiercely attacking the slightest deviation from a clean break with the European Union, the tabloids were largely receptive to Prime Minister Theresa May's compromise plan – even after it was criticized by hard Brexiteers like Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson.

United Kingdom pages on #Brexit draft agreement #tomorrowspaperstayay pic.twitter.com/285rvtzB4H

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Philip Bromwell (@philipbromwell)
November 13, 2018

The daily mail targeted the hard Brexit–Irish liners and syndicalists who have hinted that they would risk derailing the agreement in Parliament, calling them "demolition contractors" who, in the words of a Conservative MP, "were throwing their toys out of pram".

(The Mail had defended Brexit with its longtime publisher, Paul Dacre, who two years ago called on the judges who decided that any Brexit deal should be passed by Parliament "as the enemy of the people" But his new publisher, Geordie Greig, would argue Brexit more cautious.)

Another tabloid, The Daily Express, also backed the plan: "This Brexit deal is better for Britain" his home page shouted.

This led to takeovers of the intransigent Brexiters who feared that the Daily Express, like The Mail, would capitulate under new leadership.

The Times, the newspaper owned by Rupert Murdoch, however, seems unhappy with the contract.

"Mai accused of betrayal while she reveals the agreement on Brexit" title headline on the front page. – BENJAMIN MUELLER

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