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In March US President Donald Trump boasted in a tweet: "When a country (USA) loses billions of dollars in trade with virtually every country with which it does business, trade wars are good and easy to win. "
His bravado is put to a real test. Last week, he intensified the trade war with China by starting to impose tariffs on $ 200 billion more imports than his main purpose
. , forcing Beijing to respond in kind by imposing similar taxes on 34 billion US dollars of US products.
Trump's trade war against China: false or real, the world will lose
Trump was already threatening to impose tariffs on billions of dollars in Chinese imports, far more than China exported to the States Last year – if Beijing would not bow to American demands.
Responding to the latest threat, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has expressed its shock, condemned the irrational behavior and promised to take countermeasures
While the latest developments have shaken financial markets around the world, the question is: how will the trade war end and Trump's pride prove true? The answer is easy. No one wins a trade war, and this can be illustrated by an old Chinese saying that in an unpleasant war, one must prepare to lose 800 of his own to kill 1,000 enemy men.
To see why Trump's tariffs hit a Chinese nerve, read the story
The question is which camp would have the best ability and determination to stem the disastrous consequences if the war continued to worsen.
Following this logic, China is more likely to emerge Up to now, many have seen Trump's threats as part of tactics to get other countries to accede to US demands and to lower tariffs.
The problem is that almost none of the countries that he has targeted, including powerful allies like Canada and the European Union, has shown any signs of recoil. As a result, Trump's latest threat to China is also intended to send a message to its European trading partners and to other countries that the United States would not back down.
In such circumstances, China will be even more determined to fight the United States.
In the end, for Trump – as a businessman who takes pleasure in his business acumen and his brothel of bluffing and bluster – he has to measure his victory by forcing others to give him he wants: a better deal.
But for China, the struggle is more political and less commercial. Chinese officials and analysts believe that Trump's hidden agenda is not only aimed at curbing China's rise to power, but also at weakening President Xi Jinping's personal leadership following Beijing's decision to suspend China's nuclear power. repeal the mandates of the presidency. 19659004] United States and China: who tried to avoid a trade war and forced it?
Despite Western media's negative reaction to March's constitutional change, Chinese authorities have barely slowed the pace to build a personality cult around Xi
Many Western and Chinese analysts have argued that China had fewer hands to fight the trade war at a time when the US economy is on an upward trajectory and the Chinese economy is slowing down. A more pressing argument is that China will soon run out of imports from the United States to tax given the massive disparity between each country 's exports – which could force China to resort to the same. other extreme measures to counter-attack. The underestimated political will and importance that Chinese leaders have attached to the trade conflict
Capitalizing on Trump's demands without a fight would have been a blow to Xi's authority.Also, in a dictatorship like China, politics overrides and commercial interests. Unlike Trump who has hostile media, a divided Congress and voters to answer, Beijing has no constraints and can mobilize its massive political machine to mitigate and prepare for a protracted war.
[19659002] Moreover, perverted, it may seem, this trade war also has its advantages. To a certain extent, trade frictions reached their peak after nearly 40 years of accumulated constraints and tensions between countries. A fight could help relieve the accumulated tension and allow both parties to find new, more comfortable bases, as the Chinese saying goes: "out of breath, friendship grows".
That said, how the leaders of both countries get off the trade war and meet halfway will be a keen test of their political wisdom. Several important tests will be launched in November to facilitate a truce – if the war is not over yet.
First of all, the mid-term elections will be held on November 6th. is partly behind Trump's hard position while he's trying to revitalize his base. Whatever the results, the post-election would be an opportunity to reset.
Do not blame Trump or China for this trade war
Second, China is preparing activities developed in November to commemorate the 40th anniversary of its trade war. openness and reforms, where Xi should expose his vision of new reforms and open up as a world leader. A reset with the United States would help strengthen his leadership. Two meetings would also be scheduled in November for the two leaders to make peace. On 18 November, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum will be held in Papua New Guinea, followed by a G20 summit in Buenos Aires from 30 November to 1 December. ■
Wang Xiangwei is the former editor of the South China Morning Post. He is now based in Beijing as editorial advisor of the article
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