[ad_1]
Long before Brazil’s election this weekend, Jair Bolsonaro made it clear that he looked forward to being a strong US ally and would imitate much of Donald Trump’s nationalist agenda should he became president of Latin America’s biggest economy
“You can be sure Trump will have a great ally in the southern hemisphere,” the former army captain told a rally of US-based supporters last year. “Trump is an example to me . . . and in many ways to Brazil.”
Set to become Brazil’s first rightwing president in more than 30 years when he takes office on January 1, Mr Bolsonaro is part of a wave of new leaders that has swept away the “pink tide” of leftist presidents that recently governed South America. He is also likely to overturn Brazil’s traditional “rainbow” foreign policy, with major global implications.
Like the US president, Mr Bolsonaro has attacked China’s economic advances, lambasted leftist regimes such as Venezuela, said he would move Brazil’s Israel embassy to Jerusalem, and promised to withdraw from the UN Human Rights Council. He has also said he would withdraw Brazil from the Paris agreement on climate change (although he has since changed his mind).
“The summary of [our] story is the following,” said Luiz Philippe de Orléans e Bragança, a descendent of Emperor Dom Pedro, Brazil’s former ruler, who is tipped as possible foreign minister. “Brazil is open for business but closed to influence . . . We have to close ourselves from influence from the United Nations, China and large negotiating blocs like the European Union that have Brazil agendas.”
Such isolationist and “Brazil First” talk, combined with Mr Bolsonaro’s admiration for Mr Trump — they spoke on Monday — is a stark contrast to traditional Brazilian foreign policy that sought to create a multi-polar world in alliance with other major emerging economies such as China, often in opposition to the US.
“The support of an emerging market country such as Brazil at the United Nations, the [Group of 20], the World Trade Organization and other global forums will be a significant boon to the Trump administration,” Roberto Simon and Brian Winter wrote in Foreign Affairs. It “will validate US positions that the vast majority of other nations reject”.
Moreover, Brazilian policy could change fast as Mr Bolsonaro uses “cost-free” gestures, such as moving the Israel embassy, to bolster support among his evangelical base while his administration embarks on difficult economic reforms.
South America will probably feel the changes first, especially when it comes to trade, drug-trafficking and crisis-ridden Venezuela, a country Mr Bolsonaro has cast as an example of everything he opposes.
While campaigning in the northern state of Roraima, which has seen the largest influx of Venezuelan refugees into Brazil, Mr Bolsonaro pledged “to do whatever necessary to defeat that government” in Caracas. On Sunday, 72 per cent of Roraima voters chose Mr Bolsonaro as president, versus 55 per cent nationally.
“Brazil will move closer to the US on the Venezuela issue, perhaps defending the application of economic sanctions against the Maduro government,” Maurício Santoro, professor of international relations at Rio de Janeiro’s Federal University, said.
Venezuela congratulated Mr Bolsonaro on Sunday in a curt message, as did leftist Bolivia, but stressed “the free self-determination of peoples and non-interference in internal affairs”.
Trade relations will also be shaken up should Mr Bolsonaro carry out plans forged by his economics “super minister” Paulo Guedes to open the economy, deprioritise the floundering regional economic bloc Mercosur, and embrace the free-trading Pacific Alliance, which includes Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Chile.
“Mercosur won’t be a priority, is that clear?” Mr Guedes told an Argentine journalist on Sunday. “We are not worried about you liking us,” he added bluntly.
Recommended
Indeed, Mr Bolsonaro will make his first foreign trip to Chile, where President Sebastián Piñera has praised his economic reform plans. He has also sent a “big hug” to Argentine president Mauricio Macri, currently struggling with the political fallout of an IMF-led austerity programme that has plunged the economy into recession.
“Maybe with Bolsonaro there will be some short-term euphoria, with São Paulo’s middle classes buying more cars and so on,” said Fernando Sedano, Argentina economist at Morgan Stanley. “That would be good for Argentina, as the [devalued] peso is currently at the right level for exports,”
Mr Bolsonaro’s most controversial foreign policies, though, will probably involve security — especially gun ownership, which he wants to liberalise, and tougher drug policy. Here, he may find an ally in Colombian president Iván Duque, who is cracking down on domestic coca cultivation, a US bugbear.
“When it comes to counter-narcotics operations . . . we can expect Bolsonaro would do what the US tells him,” said Robert Muggah of the Igarapé Institute, a security think-tank.
Whether such approaches to regional security problems will prove successful is another matter, as they require multilateral co-operation that Mr Bolsonaro apparently eschews.
“It’s quite likely that stronger security policies [in Brazil] could just displace criminal activity to other countries,” cautioned Jorge Restrepo, of the Colombian security think-tank Cerac. “Similarly, liberalising gun ownership in Brazil could lead to more prevalent weapons elsewhere.”
Additional reporting by Benedict Mander in Buenos Aires
Source link
