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John Hudson
National Security Journalist specializing in State Department and Diplomacy.
ISTANBUL – When a Saudi journalist disappeared at his consulate here this month, Turkey did more than investigate: she recounted the crisis, drawing the world's attention to what he said was a shameless assassination and sponsored by the state on its soil.
Mournful details of the alleged murder have been shared with the Turkish and international media. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan publicly rebuked the Saudi leaders, accusing them of obstructing the investigation.
Turkey's revelations, released at tactical intervals guaranteeing global interest, may push Saudi Arabia to overturn the guilt charges and force the Trump administration to consider moving away from the kingdom, its most important Arab ally. close.
In another sign of Turkish pressure, prosecutors announced Friday they were interviewing Turks working at the consulate – employees who could provide insight into the movements and actions of Saudi officials at the time of the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu also said on Friday that once his investigation is over, Turkey will share the results "with the world".
For Erdogan, the benefits of mounting pressure on Saudi Arabia and his young crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, were obvious, analysts said. The two countries are fighting over their influence in the Middle East and are fighting over Turkey's support for Qatar as part of a quarrel that has divided the region.
Erdogan has little personal affection for Mohammed, who spoke to Turkey earlier this year as part of a regional "evil triangle", alongside Iran and regional Islamist groups. The murder investigation, with its allegations of high-level collusion by Saudi officials, has provided Turkey with an opportunity to undermine the reputation of the crown prince, analysts said, and to build a wedge between Saudi Arabia and the United States.
The Turkish president also said that he considered Khashoggi as "a friend".
[Jamal Khashoggi: What the Arab world needs most is free expression]
Erdogan could also seek other means of pressure for Turkey, notably to prevent Saudi interference in Syria along the Turkish border, as well as aid or financial relief provided by the United States. United or the Saudis, analysts said.
The crisis provided a measure of relief for Turkey, at a time when Erdogan was criticized at home for his struggling economy and abroad for detaining foreign nationals and engaging in "hostage diplomacy".
Khashoggi's case has propelled Erdogan into the ironic role of defender of journalistic freedom and negotiator between the United States and Saudi Arabia while the two long-time allies seek to manage the backlash of what many have concluded is the ruthless murder of Riyadh of a prominent critic.
While Khashoggi's experienced journalist status, who had written for the Washington Post, had at first helped to move his case from the local mystery to the global crisis, Turkey's response only strengthened his fate.
Four days after Khashoggi's disappearance on October 2, Turkish officials reported their explosive findings to the media: he was killed shortly after he entered the consulate, to obtain documents proving that he was divorced. The investigators added that his assassination was in the hands of a "strike team" made up of 15 people rushed from Riyadh to silence Khashoggi, who had written in the Post chronicles criticizing the Crown Prince.
The leaks about the case seemed to dry up about a week ago. But they began again, more gloomy than before, after Trump had speculated that "dishonest killers" were responsible for Khashoggi's disappearance and that Secretary of State Pompeo was going to Riyadh, the Saudi capital, where he was photographed smiling next to Mohammed bin Salman.
The leaks fueled speculation that Erdogan would increase the cost of his government's cooperation with Saudi Arabia, which is keen to end the Khashoggi incident. The US authorities expect Saudi Arabia to take responsibility for Khashoggi's death, but in an explanation that protects the Crown Prince from all responsibility.
"The Turks have leaked information in the form of drops and drops, ultimately, in my opinion, to increase the price of the settlement," said Joshua Walker, a former Turkey specialist in the state department. "Turkey has been in a difficult economic situation since the summer and, as we have seen with its relations with Qatar, it is doing no better than taking advantage of its relations," he said. he said, citing the commitment made by Qatar in August to invest $ 15 billion in the Turkish economy.
There is no indication that Erdogan has asked for monetary compensation or political favors in Riyadh, but Western diplomats suspect Saudi Arabia of compensating Turkey if it blesses the explanation provided by the kingdom to the disappearance of Khashoggi – a repayment that could take the form of a large debt. relief, strategic purchases or other arrangements.
"At the moment, what Turkey needs most is financial support. The economy is still fragile, it has not recovered from the crash of its currency this summer and Turkey would face a hefty fine for sanctions related to Iran, "said Soner Cagaptay, a Turkish scholar at the Washington Institute for Near East. Policy.
"Erdogan is an expert at creating a crisis-exit opportunity," he said. Erdogan "He's an excellent politician in this respect and he's looking for an opportunity."
But Asli Aydintasbas, a member of the European Council for External Relations, said Turkey's objectives were above all strategic and that his country was seeking, among other things, to "readjust the American policy", which was largely based on the Saudi Crown Prince. Trump administration's strategy of isolating Iran.
"They do not want the Americans to base all their policy on Mohammed bin Salman," she said, but at the same time, Turkey did not expect the US to be a pivot of the alliance with Saudi Arabia. Turkey's goal, she added, was to deter "the more rogue behavior associated with Mohammed bin Salman and the United Arab Emirates," a key ally of Saudi Arabia.
But the leaks and the pressures they engendered posed risks for Turkey, which tried to avoid a total diplomatic break with the Saudis and feared Saudi reprisals, analysts said.
Erdogan "does not want to go it alone against the Saudis," said Gonul Tul, director of the Turkish Studies Center of the Middle East Institute. "They want to define this as a global problem."
[Saudi Arabia transfers $100 million to U.S. amid crisis over Khashoggi]
Pompeo said Thursday that he had asked the White House to grant Saudi Arabia "a few more days to complete" his investigation, even as he was under fire from critics for failing to find answers to the disappearance of Khashoggi after his investigative mission to Riyadh and Ankara. the week.
In private talks with US officials, the Saudi Crown Prince vehemently denied any involvement in Khashoggi's disappearance, saying he would never be stupid enough to order the type of alleged murder, diplomats say. aware of the conversations, condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive subject. Critics have accused the United States of giving the Saudis time to present a plausible scenario that exonerates the Crown Prince.
But as more and more details appear in the media, Trump has adopted an increasingly bleak view of the situation, recognizing for the first time Thursday that he thought Khashoggi was no longer alive. .
"It's very sad," the president told reporters. Asked about the consequences for Saudi Arabia if it is responsible for his death, Trump said: "This will have to be severe, I mean it's bad. We'll see what happens. D & # 39; agreement "?
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