Key points from budget 2018 – at a glance | UK news



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Hammond's opening remarks

Peter Walker, political correspondent: Hammond's starting paragraphs are openly political, and again herald the idea of ​​an end to austerity. This will be, he says, "a budget that shows the perseverance of the British people finally paying off". It will be, he promised, a budget for "the strivers, the grafters and the carers". However, at the end of this section, Hammond says that the era of austerity is "finally coming to an end" – note the caution language; not "over".

Brexit

  • Hammond announces an additional £ 500m for Brexit preparations in government departments.

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  • Hammond says he is prepared to upgrade the spring statement to a "full fiscal event" if necessary.

PW: Hammond is trying to be a little bit too gloomy about Brexit – he talks about a "double deal dividend" for the economy if an agreement with the EU is reached "Full fiscal event" if needed, which sounds very much like code for an emergency budget if there is no deal.

Growth

  • Hammond forecasts growth of 1.3% growth for 2018.

  • Then 1.6% in 2019, 1.4% in 2020, 1.4% in 2021, and 1.5% in 2022 and 1.6% in 2023.

  • In March, growth was forecast at 1.3% for 2019, 1.3% for 2020, 1.4% in 2021, and 1.5% in 2022.

Borrowing

  • Forecast for borrowing to be £ 11.6bn lower in 2018-19 than forecast at the spring statement. That is equivalent to 1.2% of GDP.

  • Borrowing forecast to be £ 31.8bn in 2019-20, then falling to £ 26.7bn in 2020-21, £ 23.8bn in 2021-22, £ 20.8bn in 2022-23 and £ 19.8bn in 2023-24.

  • Hammond says the government will meet its fiscal targets, and will see borrowing as a percentage of GDP fall to 1.3% in 2021.

PW: A statistic-heavy section of the chancellor ends with a political flourish, as he calls the falling debt "a turning point in our nation's great recovery". He then adds a joke which gains great cheers from the Tory backbenches, but does not have any work if I heard it right: "Fiscal Phil says fiscal rules OK".

Debt

  • Debt is forecast to be 83.7% as a share of GDP in 2018-2019.

  • As a share of GDP, debt peaked at 85.2%.

  • Debt as a share of GDP is forecast to fall to 82.8% in 2019-20, 79.7% in 2020-21, 75.7% in 2021-22, 75.0% in 2022-23, and 74.1% in 2023-24.

Defense budget

  • Hammond announces an additional £ 1bn for the defense budget for the remainder of this year, to boost cyber capabilities and anti-submarine warfare.

  • The chancellor says the Treasury will donate to the Armed Forces Covenant Trust Fund to support veterans on the centenary of the first world war armistice.

PW: Hammond begins with his section on the subject of spending some surprises, especially on the NHS. The chancellor says these in the role of "rabbits in the hat" for the budget, but adds: "This year, some of my star bunnies seem to have escaped just a little bit early." There are, however, some other elements, not least the extra money for defense, as well as an immediate boost for social care – both areas likely to cheer his fellow Tory MPs.

Schools

PW: The schools will be welcome, but some will say they will help when they need help, when they have plenty of headaches and teaching assistants. It is also, notably, £ 20m less than the sum advertised straight afterwards for potholes.

PFI

Small business

  • Hammond says he will halve the contribution to apprenticeship levy for smaller firms from 10% to 5% in a £ 695m package to support apprenticeships.

  • He will extend the minimum qualifying period for entrepreneurs relief from 12 months to 2 years.

PW: Hammond devotes a fair amount of time to a fiscally relatively small section of the budget, a way of hammering home the much-heard argument that the Conservatives are the party of post-Brexit enterprise – which he contrasts with the views of his Labor shadow, John McDonnell.

Digital tax

  • The government will now introduce the UK digital services tax. Hammond says it will be expected to raise around £ 400m per year.

  • Digital tech giants will be taxed 2% on the money they make from UK users.

  • The chancellor said the tax will be "narrowly targeted" on UK generated revenues of specific firms, rather than UK tech startups.

PW: A much-heralded idea, and one where the real test will come via how much income it actually raises. But a politically safe new tax – not many MPs will receive constituents' letters complaining about an extra burden on the likes of Google and Amazon.

High streets

  • The government will provide £ 675m to create a "future high street fund" that councils can access to redevelop their high streets.

  • The chancellor says for the next two years, up to a business rates valuation, for all companies with a noticeable value of £ 51,000 or less the government will cut their business rates bill by one third. A saving for 90% of shops, restaurants and cafes.

  • There will also be mandatory business rates relief for public lavatories.

PW: A particularly expensive set of proposals, which will be politically popular, given the worries of many MPs about their local high streets. But, ever the pragmatist, Hammond adds that changes to shopping patterns are "irreversible" and it is a case of adapting to decline, not reversing it.

Housing

  • Hammond says the government will provide a further £ 500m for its housing infrastructure fund, which will unlock 650,000 homes. The fund now stands at £ 5.5bn.

Plastics tax

  • The government will impose a new tax on the manufacture and import of plastic packaging that contains less than 30% of recycled plastic. Hammond says he will consult on the detail and timetable.

  • There will be no special levy on disposable plastic cups.

PW: This will be a budget to cheer green advocates. The new plastic packaging tax is interesting, but Hammond has ducked the "latte levy" and the only other environmental measures announced to be dumped waste – which is in the back of the sofa.

Universal credit

  • The government will also increase the working allowance to £ 1,000 a year under universal credit, at a cost to the Treasury of £ 1.7bn a year.

PW: This is some succours to Tory backbenchers, many of whom praise UC Thus the increase in work allowances will be especially welcome. But the £ 1bn extra for transition is in the budget.

Income tax

  • Hammond says the government will meet its manifesto commitment to raise £ 12,500 (currently £ 11,850) and the higher rate taxpayers' threshold to £ 50,000 (currently £ 46,351).

  • The chancellor says this is because the OBR estimates for the public are better than expected.

  • The minimum wage will also be 4.9% from £ 7.83 to £ 8.21.

PW: Hammond says: "I did not come into politics to put taxes up" – and pledges to not do so. But it is worth remembering that only this morning, the health secretary, Matt Hancock, repeatedly refused to take into account the idea of ​​paying for increased NHS spending in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

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Verdict

PW: An oddly low-key budget speech, not less than most of Hammond's announcements had already been made, something he acknowledged. They arguably key line came somewhere in the middle, when the chancellor said: "The hard work of the British people is paying off. Austerity is coming to an end. "

The important bit is "coming to an end" – a formulation it used at least four times – rather than "has ended". As Hammond ended: "Austerity is coming to an end, but discipline will remain." This is still "sensitive Hammond" in change.

On the new announcements, it was arguably a budget of politically popular if relatively low-grade commitments; for example, an end to PFI projects, extra cash for defense, a boost for high streets and a new tax on the digital giants. But there are pitfalls ahead; for example, whether extra money for UC will be enough.

And I also suspect the additional money for schools, in total £ 400m, might cause more anguish than joy. Cash-strapped schools will be used to help you find your way around the world.

Finally, it is a question of success, with a view to achieving a better understanding of the situation in the future. .

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