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WASHINGTON (AFP) – Republicans and Democrats launched their latest attempts last Sunday to force voters to motivate their constituents ahead of the midterm elections, a referendum on Donald Trump's first two years of division.
As Trump pursues its hectic publishing program and former President Barack Obama launches a final call for a Democratic candidate in Chicago, voter turnout will be crucial.
With political passions at their peak, early voting in some states already far exceeds normal levels.
"It all depends on voter turnout," said Sen. Chris Van Hollen, as Democrats proclaim what polls consider a tough battle to gain control of the Senate. He appeared on Fox News Sunday.
And, with Democrats favored to take over the House of Representatives, Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel said, "It will depend on voter turnout on election day."
But in the first half under Trump – a totally unconventional president – there are many unknowns, especially the ultimate impact of a president who has driven supporters and enemies to an emotion rare.
Many unknowns
The party of a president of the first term tends to lose seats in Congress in his first half term. But a healthy economy tends to favor the incumbent operator – and the US economy has developed with rare vigor.
A new poll released Sunday by the Washington Post-ABC News indicates that if Democrats retain an advantage in their fight for the House, Republicans could benefit from increasingly positive valuations of the economy and fierce attention of Trump on border security.
Registered voters favored Democratic candidates in the House rather than Republicans by 50 to 43 percent; but that represented 14 points in advance in August.
Another plus: the closing days of the campaign come just a week after an armed man, who hated immigrants and Jews, killed 11 people in a Pittsburgh synagogue and after a fanatic of Trump was arrested in Florida on the pretext of sending bombs to his opponents, including Obama.
The president 's critics said the extremely busy atmosphere he had helped to create had allowed both assailants to feel comfortable in perpetrating their crimes.
The Republicans, trying to go beyond that, have been enthusiastically pushing the economic argument.
US voters have seen the economy grow for two years under Trump, McDaniel said on ABC. "They are making more money – more jobs are coming in. It is an excellent closing argument." But the president – much to the discomfort of some party members – has instead used his calendar of campaign rallies almost continuously to keep the spotlight on what he calls the threat to the safety of migrants seeking to enter the United States. United via Mexico.
At the same time, Democrats insist that they are the only ones to protect the progress made in the health sector under President Barack Obama, that Trump has used inhumane measures to prevent migrants from migrating. to enter and that the dissensions that he has created must cease.
"The Republican effort to evade important health care protections is a project that Republican candidates in the Senate have fled," said Van Hollen, chairman of the Democratic Senators' Campaign Committee, on ABC.
But he was cautious about his chamber's future prospects on Tuesday, saying "Democratic senators face the toughest political map of the past 60 years."
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