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SINGAPORE: There are still three front-runners to become Singapore's next Prime Minister, political analysts said on Sunday (Nov 11), following the People's Action Party (PAP) Central Executive Committee (CEC) election.
Ong Ye Kung, Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat and Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing – Lee Hsien Loong – Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong – was voted in the CEC, the party's highest decision-making body, on Sunday.
Observers highlighted in the vote for Mr. Ong, who was not among the 12 elected in the CEC at the previous election in December 2016. He was, instead, among the additional members who were co-opted in January 2017.
Observers had also said that it would be crucial for a member to be considered a candidate for Prime Minister.
READ: 4G Leaders take stronger hold of PAP's Central Executive Committee; senior members step aside
"The key takeaway from today is still a choice of three rather than a choice of two," said Dr. Gillian Koh, who researches party and policy at the Institute of Policy Studies.
"Because Ong Ye Kung got it right now, Heng Swee Keat and Chan Chun Sing.
"(This) makes it interesting and therefore something to be done to the 4G leaders, both those within the CEC and those who are not yet within the CEC, are ready to make a decision about who they are."
Mr Koh said, Mr Ong's election is still more significant.
The Straits Times has been reported to have had seven names for the party. The report said the seven reflected the CEC's choice of the party's core leaders, and that Mr Ong was not among them.
Political commentator Eugene Tan, a law professor at the Singapore Management University, said it would be surprising if Mr Ong had indeed been excluded from the list of seven.
"Given that Ong Ye Kung is a senior member of Parliament, who has been elected president of the European Parliament in the CEC, says that he has good all- round support of party executives, "Associate Professor Tan said.
THE SECRETARIES-GENERAL ASSISTANT: WHO AND HOW MANY?
The CEC will meet in the future with a new slate of officeholders, with all eyes on who will occupy the positions of assistant secretaries-general. It is understood that one of them will be the next Prime Minister.
Deputy Prime Ministers Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Teo Chee Hean both held the positions before stepping down from the CEC on Sunday.
READ: DPMs Tharman, Teo Chee Hean and 3 senior PAP members step down from Central Executive Committee
Dr. Koh believes that it will come to the fore, and that it will be done.
"Whoever takes this portfolio must be undergirded by his standing in the ruling party," she said, noting Mr Shanmugam's strong background in internal security and legal affairs.
But Dr. Koh said the question is whether there will be two or three assistant secretary-general spots in total.
If it's just another assistant secretary-general besides Mr Shanmugam, then she said the choice for the next Prime Minister is clear. If it's two other assistant secretaries-general, "the signal is that the issue is still in play as to who might be the first".
READ: PAP assistant secretary-general appointment to become Singapore's next PM, analysts say
CEC, Assoc Prof. Tan Tan said it would be "quite unlikely" that he would be appointed as one of the two secretaries-general assistants, given that the make-up of the new outgoing CECs is "largely similar".
However, if Mr Ong did well in the poll among PAP's on Sunday, Assoc Prof Tan said the new CEC "may have a different view as compared to the outgoing CEC".
The PAP does not release how many votes each member received.
"But I would still say that they were going to be two new secretaries-general appointed, it would suggest that Chan Chun Sing and Heng Swee Keat are well-placed," Prof. Prof Tan added.
There were, however, also other permutations. Assoc Prof Tan noted that the CEC may instead decide to have one assistant secretary-general from among the 4G leaders with the other from the 3G.
As suggested by Dr. Koh, Assoc Prof. Tan also noted the possibility of three assistant secretaries-general being appointed.
READ: No more than two years left for GE, says PM Lee
SIM Global Education associate lecturer Felix Tan suggests that succession plans are also still up in the air.
"There are three people that have been speculated and I think it's still some time before we really realize who is the one they're going to choose," he said.
Dr. Tan said the likelihood is that Mr Ong and Mr Chan would become assistant secretaries-general, while Mr Heng might be given a "less taxing" role, given his Finance Minister portfolio.
"So he could not be the assistant secretary-general at this point in time but who knows, he could still be in the running. There can still be a lot of changes along the way, "he said.
Nevertheless, Dr. Tan said the new CEC gives Singaporeans a clearer idea of who among the 4G leaders "will likely form the next Government or at least lead (the party at) the next General Election".
"It does still send a clear message that these people are with the credentials, credibility and ability to lead the team forward," he added.
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