[ad_1]
Singapore
SINGAPORE may need to revise its economic growth forecast for next year, with a trade dispute between the world's two largest economies increasing uncertainty and curbing business investment, said Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat.
"In the short term, the impact is not yet fully felt", Singapore has maintained its growth forecast for this year at 2.5% to 3.5%, said Heng at the # 39, an interview with Haslinda Amin of Bloomberg Television.
"But any trade tensions that delay globalization will affect everyone, including the countries directly involved, but also the collateral damage in all economies."
Heng made the remarks at this week's Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore, where policymakers and business leaders will gather to debate the changing dynamics of the world as economic influence changes in the West. in East.
In Southeast Asia, countries are facing a powerful storm of economic challenges: a tariff battle with considerable stakes between the United States and China, a tightening of global monetary policy, a strengthening of the US dollar and the risk of capital outflows.
Singapore, a hub of international trade benefiting from trade and goods movement between manufacturing centers in the region, the United States and Europe, has already seen exports slow down this year.
Uncertain prospects
Asked that Singapore may have to re-evaluate its forecast for 2019, Heng said "indeed" and stressed the deterioration by the International Monetary Fund of its global forecasts.
Economic agencies and the central bank have been in close contact with business and are looking into whether projections should be "modified or revised," he said.
"We are beginning to see the effects in terms of increased uncertainty and reduced business investment," he said.
While the 2018 growth is expected to be in the upper half of the projection, "for next year, it depends on how the situation evolves in the coming months, as many of these investment decisions to be made will affected. " ".
Beyond 2019, a protracted trade war would severely disrupt the global supply chain, raising long-term growth challenges for countries as the "global production frontier" is reduced, Heng said.
Structural motors
The 57-year-old minister is one of many men considered one of the main candidates for the post of prime minister of Singapore.
He has held the position of Minister of Finance since 2015 and previously held the post of Minister of Education and Chief Executive Officer of the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
"The structural drivers of growth in Asia are strong: look at the growing population, the growing middle class, the adoption of multilateralism and free trade, as well as the growing efforts in technology and technology. innovation, "said Heng.
"What we hope is to position Singapore as a global Asian hub of technology, innovation and enterprise," which gives it a competitive edge through its connectivity to the global economy and to Asia, its adherence to international standards and the rule of law. its opening.
"Our protection of intellectual property and the trust that people have in Singapore as a business center are so important," said Heng.
Supply chains
The trade dispute is causing concern among companies who are all looking for ways to strengthen the resilience of their supply chains.
"In the short term, some of these immediate changes will occur (and) the natural evolution of the supply chain is currently suffering a severe shock because of this change," Heng said.
"Will it be an advantage for the global economy in the long run? Not if the trade dispute remains protracted, as it means you are moving away from what should be the frontier of production for the economy? "and the specialization that" should take place and evolve as economic conditions change may be diverted in a certain way ".
He added that countries in the region will need to make the most of this "messy situation" by accelerating the development of their infrastructure, connectivity and other areas.
"Otherwise, the supply chain becomes very inefficient and everyone of us will pay for it," he added.
Trade blocks
Breaking the world into regional trading blocs "may be detrimental, but if we can use a bilateral agreement, regional agreements as building blocks of global agreements, and build confidence in the system and give economies time to make adjustments think we need to continue and that this can pave the way for multilateral agreements, "he said.
"I think we will best serve all countries if we have an agreement at the level of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The WTO remains a very important institution to defend, to preserve, because I think that a global system based on multilateral system rules "better serves the interests of countries.
Singapore Budget
"Our priority areas remain economic restructuring", with innovation being at the heart of the work of policy makers. "The other big area concerns infrastructure development", urbanization being a major trend in Asia.
Tax structure
"I have already had many, many discussions with my staff on the broad lines of what we are going to announce, but not only for this year, but for a number of years, about the changes we need to make to our structure of our revenue structure, "Heng said.
"We believe that we should not plan on an annual basis, but that we need to take a longer-term view of some of our needs."
Imposing less labor and capital more "is one of the options we are looking at" but "we have a whole range of possible instruments". The consumption tax will always be an important part of the tax base over the next five years, he said. BLOOMBERG
[ad_2]
Source link
