Suu Kyi and the military: Are they falling?

Things do not look very good for General Min Aung Hlaing of Myanmar, the alleged war criminal responsible for genocide against the Rohingya community in Rakhine. While the ICC, the UN and regional and international organizations (G7, EU, OIC, Amnesty, UNHRC, etc.) are putting pressure on Hlaing, relations between Aung San Suu Kyi army become tenuous. However, the xenophobic Hlaing displays a brave and provocative face, not realizing that he could be charged by the ICC for crimes against humanity.

Although recently, Suu Kyi, faced with international ostracism, seems to have changed her tone. On May 31, 2018, her government announced that she would establish a national independent investigative commission to investigate human rights violations committed during the brutal crackdown on Rohingya in the country. 39, Rakhine State, killing several thousand people and more than 700,000 in Bangladesh. This announcement of President Win Myint's office immediately put Hlaing in disagreement with Suu Kyi

The main point of contention between the civilian government of Suu Kyi and the army is the composition of the commission. Hlaing took umbrage at not having been consulted before the announcement, and the fact that there would be a stranger in the three-member commission. Hlaing is deeply hostile to foreign experts who plunge into Myanmar's business. A senior army officer working for Hlaing told the Bangkok Post: "This is a total anathema … to the army. It is a red line that can not be crossed … "

Then, on June 6, Myanmar signed a memorandum of understanding with UNDP and UNHCR to facilitate the voluntary return and the reintegration of displaced Rohingya.The army is nervous because the agreement protocol will allow all kinds of foreigners to access Rakhine.The other painful point for the military was the decision the civilian government to authorize the Special Envoy of the UN Secretary-General in Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, to open an office in Naypyidaw.The army firmly believes that the country will be vulnerable to foreign interference and puts its sovereignty at risk.

Shortly after these events, according to the Myanmar Times, a meeting of the powerful National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) was held at the Presidential Palace on June 8, where Hlaing allegedly ran into Suu Kyi, threatening to dismiss the civilian. It is the UN envoy Christine Burgener who apparently calmed both after several rounds of talks. Later, however, Hlaing rejected speculation of tension between the army and the civilian government and also rejected all rumors of dissension between the government and the army.

Although more than a month has passed, the commission could not be formed approached to join the commission declined the offer because "they find the position too hot to handle", said sources close to the selection process. Former East Timor president and Nobel laureate Jose Ramos-Horta has been offered the position of chairman of the commission, when he met Suu Kyi on June 15 in Naypyidaw. According to Bangkok Post citing diplomatic sources in Myanmar, Horta regarded it as "a poisoned chalice" and refused to take the post describing it as a "hard job".

The people approached were afraid because the panel is under immense international pressure. prove independence and achieve credible results. But more importantly, the commission could not be formed because the army is opposed to the idea of ​​including a stranger, which aggravates tensions between Suu Kyi and Hlaing.

To make matters worse, the spokesman of the National League for Democracy (NLD) party, U Aung Shin, echoing Suu Kyi, said the party would no longer protect human rights abusers. Suu Kyi's turnaround is surprising when compared to her September 2017 speech to parliament where she denied the misdeeds of the military and said the media was hiding behind an "iceberg of misinformation". The spokesman added that by allowing the UN envoy to settle in Naypyidaw, the NLD was ready to work with the international community to resolve the Rohingya crisis.

Clearly, Suu Kyi is desperate to assert her powers. of the government and put the maverick generals under duress and end the Rohingya crisis. Suu Kyi is counting on international pressure to strengthen relations with the military.

Naypyidaw is fully aware of the visits to Bangladesh (1-2 July) of UN Secretary General António Guterres and World Bank Chief Jim Yong Kim. Guterres said that the UN must increase pressure on Naypyidaw, and categorically said that Rohingya refugees must return to their homeland. Earlier, in late April 2018, an investigative mission composed of members of the United Nations Security Council also visited refugee camps in Bangladesh. On June 29, Bangladeshi Foreign Minister AH Mahmood Ali traveled to Beijing, where Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi assured him that China would help speed up the return. Rohingyas to Rakhine. Moreover, on June 21, the ICC judges asked Naypyidaw to respond, by July 27, 2018, to a prosecution request that they were considering hearing a case concerning the alleged deportation of Rohingya minorities to Bangladesh. Amnesty International has already documented irrefutable evidence of atrocities committed by the Hlaing Army

. All these developments show that there is tremendous international pressure on Hlaing and Suu Kyi, who are now visibly at odds. U Ye Myo Hein, one of the founders of the Yangon-based Tagaung Institute of Political Studies, said the army could create a situation that would make it more difficult for the government to control the situation. in Rakhine. And this could lead to unimportant results, according to experts.

Mahmood Hasan is a former ambassador and secretary to the Government of Bangladesh.