Today, NATO is embarking on a vast military exercise. Here's what you need to know.



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The US Marine Corps version of Lockheed Martin's F35 Seal Assault Hunter test is equipped with external weapons. (Reuters)

It is the year of military exercises worthy of interest. President Trump surprises The cancellation of annual maneuvers between South Korea and the United States in June highlighted the importance of such exercises in geopolitical and diplomatic relations. In September, as Dmitry Gorenburg explained here at TMC, the vast Russian exercise Vostok-2018 along its eastern borders showed how different branches of the Russian armed forces could coordinate their operations. And by cooperating with a Chinese military contingent, Russia said the two superpowers could develop a closer strategic relationship. This operation, built on the Zapad-2017 Russian exercise, has probably made headlines, including some hyperbolic, that no event of this kind recently.

It is now NATO's turn to show its military prowess in Trident Juncture 18, which kicks off today. Given the increased tensions between the alliance and Russia since Moscow seized the Crimea of ​​Ukraine in 2014, many things are reported here. Here's what you need to know.

1. What are these exercises?

Unlike "table war games" or computer simulations, military exercises use real troops, tanks, airplanes and warships, repeating what they could do if they were to fight. Officially, these exercises always aim to train the armed forces to deal with complex military scenarios. But advertising and visual images of forces in action also send geopolitical messages.

NATO regularly sponsors several military exercises each year. Its different Member States do it too, so maneuvers like this are not unusual. But as I will explain below, Trident Juncture 18 has a much faster tempo and a wider reach.

2. What is NATO's main goal for Trident Juncture 18?

After the annexation of Crimea by Russia, NATO held a summit in Wales, where it decided to strengthen its military capabilities and, as the alliance says, in its logic of Trident Juncture 18: " The first version of Trident Juncture, the NATO synthesis exercise, was held in Spain and Portugal in 2015, but this year's iteration radically alters the geographical goal.

Until now, most NATO and Allied exercises have taken place in geopolitically unstable central and eastern Europe, particularly near the southern Baltic Sea. This year, however, the Trident Juncture scenario is shifting to the Nordic region, particularly Norway and the North Atlantic Barents area. This is to show that NATO can and will defend its northern flank, in front of where Moscow has concentrated its forces in northwestern Russia.

3. What is the size?

Trident Juncture 18 will be the most important exercise conducted by the alliance since the end of the Cold War. Approximately 50,000 military and support personnel from 31 member countries and NATO partners, 250 aircraft, 65 warships and up to 10,000 military vehicles, according to NATO. What is the importance of NATO for this exercise? A US Navy aircraft strike group will operate in this region for the first time since 1987 – and rightfully the aircraft carrier is the USS Harry S. Truman, named after the president who helped to the creation of NATO.

4 Why are Finland and Sweden involved?

Although neither Finland nor Sweden are members of NATO, they will fully participate in Trident Juncture. In fact, the Finnish and Swedish bases will organize some maneuvers, including the deployment of fighter jets. It is not the first time that these two Nordic countries, each with strong military skills, are participating in NATO exercises around the Baltic Sea region. But as former US ambassador Azita Raji said, Sweden has moved away from military alliances. Deciding to participate in an exercise which focuses on the mutual defense of the Member States, as set out in Article 5 of NATO's founding treaty, testifies to a profound change in the strategic thinking of this country.

Similarly, as Reid Standish reports, Finland has been carefully balancing its independence and domestic policies for decades with the need to maintain good relations with neighboring Russia. Playing the "map of NATO" forces Moscow to guess its long-term intentions.

5 What is the geopolitical impact?

Norway, unlike other Nordic countries, is a member of NATO – and yet, it has long been opposed to the installation of foreign troops on its soil. But since 2017, Norway has hosted US Marine deployments and purchased the latest-generation F-35 fighter aircraft manufactured in the United States. The organization of these exercises demonstrates Norway's commitment to playing a more influential role within NATO.

In doing so, Norway is significantly changing the military balance in an area of ​​great strategic importance for the Alliance and Russia. The country is taking advantage of its critical geographical position to consolidate its mutual defense claims under Article 5, notably by invoking its claims in the United States.

According to Norwegian defense expert Tormod Heier, Norway's participation in NATO exercises shows how a small country can make it known that it can call on much stronger allies to deter a bigger neighbor. Other small NATO members close to Russia, such as the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, proved that they were able to do the same thing.

In a firm statement on the Trident Juncture 18, the Russian Foreign Ministry said: "The escalation of military and political activity of NATO in the Arctic region, especially in the immediate vicinity from Russia, did not go unnoticed ". on the defense of his territory is received in Moscow. The exercise itself will amplify this signal.

Will the two sides strengthening their respective military activities result in mutual deterrence?

Ralph S. Clem is Professor Emeritus of Geography and Principal Investigator at the Steven J. Green School of International Affairs and Public Affairs at Florida International University.

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