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Sugar prices are falling sharply this year. World stocks are close to a record, demand growth is slowing and production is booming, making sugar this year the worst market performance. Analysts say prices should stay low for a while. This comes from the report published by Bloomberg.
Consumers are increasingly afraid of the impact of sugar on the health and business of Del Monte Foods canned fruit producer at Mondelēz International, trying to get customers with products with lower sugar content. While global sugar consumption continues to increase, the pace of growth has slowed to 1.4% in recent seasons, compared to 1.7% over the past decade, according to Green Pool.
In contrast, production is booming, especially in India, the world's second largest producer. In addition, the harvest of farmers in Thailand is high. World stocks are expected to rise to record this season and remain close to the record next year, according to estimates by the US Department of Agriculture.
The price of a futures contract for sugar in New York this year dropped 25 percent, the biggest loss in the Bloomberg commodity index, which tracks the returns of 22 products seven sectors. And investors are preparing for a further decline. Last week, investors more than tripled their bets on falling prices.
"Everyone is trying to get rid of sugar and sweet products, you can see it in supermarkets and grocery stores," said Newbridge Securities strategist Donald Selkin. "Demand will remain lower than we have seen in recent years. Prices are doomed to stay low for a while. "
Green Pool estimates that sugar production in 12 months at the end of September will exceed demand for a record 19.6 million tonnes. This surplus is about as large as annual demand in China, which is the largest sugar importer in the world.
After a massive meeting, the Indian Sugar Industry Association announced in early July that processors are pushing for an increase in export quotas to a record six million tonnes. The Union estimates that domestic production will increase this year from 58 percent to 32 million tons. In Brazil, the rise in ethanol reserves and the collapse of biofuel prices mean that more cane can be converted into sugar.
Of course, the situation can still change and harvests can be bad, especially if the weather is worse than expected. Damaged dry plants in the central part of Brazil, which is the largest producing region. The El Niño weather phenomenon could also cause crop damage in Asia.
In a market where demand is slowing down, however, the small shock of supply is generally absorbed without difficulty. Worse, the health problems and taxes on sweetened drinks that have a negative impact on consumption have so far only emerged in developed economies, but they are starting to emerge in developing countries, said Greenpool. statusChangeCallback (param, call) {
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