Expert from Eastern Europe: Russia's frustrated attacks (Interview)

What is happening in the sea of ​​Azov and how do you explain it?

We are witnessing an immediate direct confrontation, a military incident of two armies – Russia and Ukraine. Until now, all Russian interpretations have been that Crimea has held volunteers and that some Donbass were holidaymakers. They said that it was not an official Russian army, even if the Ukrainians had evidence.

This is the first direct stretch. I appreciate it as a demonstration of the power of Russia, whether or not it is the interpretation of the Ukrainian or Russian conflict.

Ukrainians say the Russians were aware of the movement of three ships that had moved from Odessa to Mariupol. On the contrary, the Russians say that they have not received such information. Since 2003, an agreement has been reached for military, civil and naval vessels flying the flag of Russia and Ukraine to guarantee free trips to the Kerch Strait and the Azov Sea.

This means that even if the Ukrainians did not inform the Russians that their three ships would be moved here, they would have the right to swim in accordance with this agreement. Ukrainians claim that they even waited to get the message to Kerch. But even after repeated calls, no one came, so they decided to go further. Then Russian ships hit.

You can hear the interview with Alexander Duleb in our sub-cycle:

What will happen to captured sailors now? How can I fix it?

Only through bilateral discussions on their release. They are prisoners of the Russian armed forces and their release depends on whether or not they agree to their release.

What does international law say? Who is in the right here?

An area about 12 miles from the coast is in retirement and under the control of the country to which it belongs. International maritime law states that when you enter this zone, you must inform the country concerned of your passage. If a particular country does not have the reasons above, this will not prevent you from sailing.

Under the 2003 agreement, all ships sailing in the Kerch Strait under Russian or Ukrainian flag have the right to navigate freely and no one can restrict them. The Kerch Strait is very narrow, and when the bridge can not penetrate into neutral waters, it must enter Russian waters.

Has there been a violation of international maritime law? What are the sanctions and who can do it in this case?

Anyone who has done it or has not done it until now. Ukraine responded by declaring an exceptional military status. It means the full mobilization of the army, the destruction of advances and others.

I believe, rightly, that the Ukrainian ships, which had been sent to the rescue by a team of three people, were brought back to the ports. Perhaps there will be no other incidents and disturbances in the Black Sea or the Azov Sea.

I expect that the sanctions against Russia will be generalized. It will be an asymmetrical response from those who have so far enacted sanctions against Russia for what it is doing in Ukraine.

Do you think European and American sanctions against Russia?

Not only that, like Australia, Norway, Canada and other countries that have imposed economic sanctions on Russia.

What are the economic sanctions?

The economic aspects are of particular importance. And especially financial, which concerns Russian companies and state banks that can not borrow short-term financial markets of developed countries, namely the European Union, the United States of America. America, etc. Russia has created a huge problem because Russian SOEs have borrowed more than $ 500 billion in the past and need refinancing to be able to pay so long.

Because they did not have access to the financial markets because of the sanctions, they had their own reserve funds. As of 1 January 2018, Russia had to cancel the reserve fund because it had not left the money, but only the National Welfare Fund was left to finance the pension reform. We know what the pension reform in Russia is.

The mood of the population is also changing, Putin's support, with more than 86%, has fallen to 40%, which had never happened before. Russia is also facing serious economic problems, and I would say that it is also the effect of sanctions, their share being between 20% and 30%. The rest is mainly due to the fact that structural reforms in Russia are not in progress, that corruption is in progress, that the system is ineffective, that oil prices fall, that the ruble is devastated and that foreign trade has dropped because it was imported.

Do you think these are sanctions on what Europe and the United States want to achieve? Because when we sanctioned Crimea and East of Ukraine, Russia did not succeed.

This is an asymmetrical answer. The symmetrical answer would be war. The decisions of the United States, NATO and the EU on the war against Russia have not been taken. If we also disagree with what Russia is doing, an asymmetrical response has been received. These are economic sanctions that we can not expect to have immediate effect. In the last five years, they have shown that they have an effect and Russia is facing growing economic problems.

But we still have the same problem in Ukraine and we now have another one in the sea of ​​Azov.

I think it is reasonable that Ukraine does not escalate the tension and I am happy to have withdrawn its warships. This conflict has no military solution, and even the Russians can not win it.

The Russians could successfully block the sea of ​​Azov, but it is a sea transport because the Ukrainian port of Mariupol, located at the seaside of Azov, is the second largest cargo ship.

Basically, Ukrainian exports and imports passed through this port. If cruising through the Kerch River to Mariopoli is accelerated, it will be a serious economic problem. Maybe this part of the Russians may have left.

Why do you think Putin does it? Is it a foreign policy objective or is it also pursuing an internal policy?

One with the other. I believe that Russia's foreign policy has at least three things and all three consider Russia a problem. It's a frustration for them because their ambitions are not fulfilled.

The first is nuclear frustration because the United States ignores Russia as a global nuclear superpower. Russia and the United States have the largest nuclear arsenal, but Russia claims that it must be an equal partner of the United States. The Russian concept of global security would be such that they and the Americans are cops who, if necessary, will solve the problem together. But this Russian concept was unacceptable to the Americans. The Russians therefore had nuclear weapons and were frustrated at not being seen as such a partner.

Secondly, and this also depends on the development of their foreign policy by taking Petrom I, which made Russia a European power, there is a great frustration of Yugoslavia in 1999.

For the first time in 300 years in Europe, they decided to use force without their consent. They discovered that they were out and that they wanted to go back there. It seems that Putin has found a solution with Bush between 2001 and 2003. Unfortunately, this solution ended in Iraq, where the Americans again used force without their consent, according to the Russians. But then, the ax of peace came, Putin, Shredder, Shirak, and in 2003-2006, everything seemed to be going well. We had a lot of things here – the EU's common space with Russia.

But then Sarkozy and Merkel entered, the revolution of color and changed. Then there was a break in Putin's foreign policy. Since then, in 2007 and 2008, the confrontation that we attended in August 2008 in Georgia and then in 2014 in Ukraine began and continues today in the sea of ​​Azov.