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The IMF's baseline scenario provides for a gradual tightening of financial conditions, but it will still be favorable. The normalization of monetary policy in developed economies will continue and be downgraded.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the situation of the world economy has slightly deteriorated. The reason is the political uncertainty. Growth in major countries has slowed, for example, in the UK, a hubbub, in Japan or in some eurozone countries, said IMF chief economist Maury Obstfeld in an updated report. on the global economic outlook.
The IMF continues to expect a 3.9% increase in the global economy this year, compared to the original forecast published in April
. However, the outlook for individual economies has changed. The Fund moderated the industrialized countries' expansion forecast this year by 0.1 percentage point to 2.4%. In 2019, it is still expecting an increase of 2.2%. Emerging economies are expected to grow by 4.9% in 2018 and 5.1% in 2019.
The IMF has kept US forecasts unchanged. The gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States is expected to increase by 2.9% and 2.7% respectively. On the contrary, euro area forecasts fell by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively to 2.2% and 1.9% next year.
Negative Impacts
Japanese GDP is expected to increase by 1% (-0.2 points) and 0.9% respectively. The British are expected to increase by 1.4% (-0.2 points) and 1.5%, respectively. According to the IMF, the Chinese economy will grow respectively 6.6% and 6.4% and Russian 1.7% and 1.5% respectively.
The IMF's baseline scenario provides for a gradual tightening of financial conditions, but remains positive. The normalization of monetary policy in developed economies will continue and be well disconnected
The growth of domestic demand, an important factor in the recovery of the world economy, will continue to be rapid. Under the baseline scenario, the direct negative effects of recently announced trade measures, which are expected to be limited, have so far only affected a small portion of world trade
. IMF also relies on their only moderate impact on the market mood, although the escalation of trade disputes remains a significant risk that can cause a slowdown in economic growth
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