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At some point, every fancy owner except the lucky ones needs to find the proverbial diamond in the rough – a waiver thread or a bench player capable of scoring points in a pinch. This weekly feature is dedicated to this part of fantasy football. It’s not pretty, but it’s part of the game.
A good way to identify a potential starting point is to take advantage of 4for4’s schedule strength metric, Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA). Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed per position, but 4for4 takes it a step further and adjusts these numbers based on the relative strength of a defense’s schedule since the start of the year. So if a defense has seen a row of running backs from a murderer, that will be reflected in the AFPA of the defense. As a workbook, I use this metric every week when building our award-winning projections.
As of week 4, the AFPA hotspot reports you see on the site are now using data from 2020, so we can now pay close attention to the positional strength of the calendar. The ranking of a defense in relation to a particular position is indicated in parentheses next to each player.
Let’s take a look at the best sneaky starts for week 10 …
Quarterback
Derek carr, Raiders (against DEN, 24 years old)
Carr’s yardage against the Chargers was low (165), but he threw more than two touchdowns for the sixth time in his last seven games, the only exception being the Wind Bowl in Cleveland in Week 8. Meanwhile, the Broncos have yielded 284/3 to Matt Ryan and 278/3 to Justin Herbert in recent weeks. They kept Patrick Mahomes at 200/1 in week 7.
Jared goff, Rams (vs. SEA, 32)
Goff has thrown over 320 yards and / or more than 2 touchdowns in six of his last seven games. Seattle really struggled against the pass, giving up 415/3 to Josh Allen, 322/2 to Nick Mullens / Jimmy Garoppolo, 360/3 to Kyler Murray and 249/2 in the last five games.
Tua Tagovailoa, dolphins (against BAC, 28 years old)
I was hesitant to recommend Tagovailoa last week after a tough first start against the Rams, but after 248/2 against the Cardinals (with 35 rushing yards), I feel better about his outlook. The Chargers have given up more than 2 touchdowns in three straight games. Before that, they yielded 325/1 to Drew Brees and 369/5 to Tom Brady.
Baker mayfield, Brown (against HOU, 22 years old)
Baker is on the COVID-IR list but is participating remotely this week. If he can play, he should deliver against the Texans. Outside of the Wind Bowl in Week 8, Mayfield was solid if not spectacular, with more than 2 TDs in five of his previous six games, including 297/5 against the Bengals after losing Odell Beckham early on. Meanwhile, the Texans have struggled, allowing Jake Luton 304/1, Aaron Rodgers 283/4, Ryan Tannehill 364/4 and Gardner Minshew 301/2 in their last four games.
Other distribution options: Teddy Bridgewater (v VG, 3), Daniel Jones (v PHI, 25), Drew Lock (@ LV, 17) and Philip Rivers (@ TEN, 23).
Running Backs
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