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Mother Nature has been in a rare mood this week, giving consistent indications on her storm track and how much snow she could deliver to southern Minnesota on Saturday. In fact, we’re talking about four or five days in a row without major changes to the forecast, which seems to be a rarity these days.
Now the question is whether the forecast will hold up after the snow is finished.
What Can the People of Minnesota Expect? The National Weather Service continues to forecast the highest amounts – 4 to 7 inches of downy snow – falling along the Minnesota River valley in an area typically between Redwood Falls and Mankato, with up to 7 inches also possible at south of Mankato along the Interstate 90 corridor.
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The official forecast for the Twin Cities is 3 to 5 inches, although only 2 to 4 inches is forecast for the northern suburbs.
Snow is expected to enter southwest Minnesota at 8 a.m. and move east, reaching the Twin Cities metro area by early afternoon. The snow should be completely out of here by the time most people wake up on Sunday morning.
Here’s a look at future radar simulated from the HRRR model, which shows the darkest shades of blue (indicating heavier snow) in southern Minnesota.
Winds won’t be a major issue, so wind and drift isn’t a major issue with this storm, but the weather service believes the roads will become covered in snow, resulting in dangerous travel conditions. Here’s a look at the Winter Storm Severity Index, which shows moderate travel problems in the Twin Cities and where higher snow totals are expected in southern Minnesota.
We’ve talked a lot about snow-to-liquid ratios this week, and the National Weather Service’s Twin Cities office says its forecast is mostly based on a 15: 1 ratio, meaning that for every inch of liquid there could be. 15 inches of snow. .
This storm is not expected to dump an inch of liquid, but rather a discharge between 0.20 inch and 0.50 inch, with higher amounts (0.40 inch) along the Minnesota River Valley and in the center. -south of Minnesota. Half an inch of liquid at a 15: 1 ratio would drop 7.5 inches of snow, while half an inch of liquid at an 18: 1 ratio would drop 9 inches.
Here is the amount of fluid projected by the latest HRRR model, which, if accurate, would put between 3 and 5 inches of snow in most of the metro, just as the weather service predicted. Do the math for your area by multiplying the decimals below by 15. (Example: 0.4 times 15 is 6 inches of snow.)
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