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It’s impossible to know when something will matter, but I agree with Peter Cecchini, founder and CEO of AlphaOmega Advisors, who says stocks can’t go to the moon forever.
“Some of the earnings estimates that I see, like you said, the consensus is just below $ 170, are going to require multiples which just don’t make much sense to me in the context of the fact that the rates can’t go lower. So if we’re looking for multiple expansion to keep leading the rally, I don’t think we’re going to get it because the Fed’s effectiveness is limited, right? It has firepower, no one is saying the Fed has no ammunition. He can print money and buy treasury bills for as long as he wants. But at the end of the day when you’re at zero the uplifting impact is lessened … I think that’s a huge piece that people miss. We’re not just back, you know, to that “over the moon” scenario for the profits. If anything, we’re back to a situation where cash flow remains tough and, for that matter, debt levels have exploded. “
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