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The numbers – 22 Republican seats in place, only 12 seats of Democrats – suggest that this is eminently feasible. And it could be! But the seats held by the GOP are less appealing to Democrats than you think, with only Colorado and Arizona being virtually certain to be tight competitions.
All this brings me to Monday in Iowa, where businesswoman Theresa Greenfield (D) announced that she would run against Senator Joni Ernst (R) in 2020. Greenfield published a video bragging about being the daughter of a feather duster: "I am a child of the farm whose values are ready to fight for the workers," she tweeted.
And Ernst also does not seem extremely vulnerable. A poll in the Monks' Register early this year showed that nearly 6 out of 10 voters in Hawkeye State had approved the work they were doing – a solid note in a political environment where incumbents are rarely as well considered.
But, but, but: In order for Democrats to have a legitimate chance of reclaiming the Senate, they must expand their field of action beyond Colorado and Arizona. (This is especially true when we consider that Democrats have the extremely difficult task of defending a siege in Alabama.) And Iowa is a prime candidate for this democratic expansion (with North Carolina and may be Georgia).
While President Donald Trump carried 9 points in 2016, the Democrats overthrew two Republican-controlled House seats and nearly defeated Rep. Steve King (R) to gain unanimous control of the four-person congressional delegation. two years later. Trump's figures in Iowa now look very little like those of 2016; only 45% approved the work he was doing during the 2018 Gallup State polls.
Then there is this: the ongoing trade war between Trump and China is deeply affecting the farmers of Iowa. A study by Iowa State University estimated that the total losses suffered by farmers from the tariff regime in head-to-head could amount to $ 2 billion.
This means that the national Democrats badly need Greenfield to make this race a real race against Ernst.
Point: Democrats need more races to have a realistic chance of reaching the majority in the Senate. And Iowa is at the top of the list.
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