SpaceX CEO Elon Musk confident Starship will launch humans on Mars by 2026

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CEO Elon Musk says he’s “very confident” that SpaceX will be ready to attempt its first crewed Starship mission to Mars as early as 2026 – almost exactly six years from now.

Made as part of an interview at the Axel Springer Awards 2020 in Germany, Musk’s latest comments represent a marked move towards optimism and confidence in the progress SpaceX is making with its Starship program. Effectively designed to make SpaceX’s existing Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets redundant, Starship aims to be the world’s first fully reusable orbital launcher capable of placing more than 100 metric tons (~ 220,000 lb) of cargo into low earth orbit (LEO). ) at a cost of a few million dollars per launch.

If this extremely low launch cost can be achieved, SpaceX will be able to affordably supply orbiting spacecraft to give them the performance needed to send and land 100 metric tons or more on the Moon and Mars.

Be warned, the grimace abounds …

With routine orbital refueling, Starship would be able to deliver a previously unimaginable volume of cargo to other moons and planets in the solar system. With enough spacecraft, super heavy thrusters, and launch pads, the launch system could enable a large and sustainable human population on Mars and Earth’s Moon, as well as unprecedented ambitious robotic missions almost anywhere in less than a deep interstellar space.

While this is an exceptionally difficult destination, even for a small spacecraft, Starship is shown here approaching Saturn, presumably headed for the Titan moon. (SpaceX)

Impressively, as CNBC reporter Michael Sheetz first noted, Musk already launched 2026 as a possible target for SpaceX’s first crewed launch to Mars during his inaugural presentation on the subject in September 2016. Although This is by no means an intentional outcome, the CEO still seems I believe – and now with more confidence than ever – that 2026 is a viable target despite several huge hurdles and drastic changes to Starship over the past four years.

In 2016, the unveiled Musk rocket was known as the Interplanetary Transport System (ITS), was to be constructed entirely from advanced carbon fiber composites, and was said to have been the largest launcher ever built by far, with a height of 122 m (~ 400 ft) high with a diameter of 12 m (~ 40 ft). That diameter quickly declined to 9m (~ 30ft) in 2017, while the rocket height also dropped before almost bouncing – ironically – to 120m with the latest Starship iteration.

The most dramatic change, however, came just two years ago when Musk revealed he was canceling work on a carbon composite vessel in favor of a design built almost entirely of steel.

Almost exactly two years ago, an empty tent, a concrete slab, and a giant pile of dirt was the full extent of SpaceX’s efforts to build starships out of steel. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagale)
Two years later, SpaceX built a massive factory that produced rockets the size of a steel building almost faster than they could be tested, as well as preparations for the high altitude launch of the first fully assembled prototype. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagale)

To be clear, SpaceX has a slew of issues to work out and milestones to cross before Starship can be considered anywhere close to being ready to launch humans, let alone launch and land humans on Mars. and serve as a safe habitat for years. However, given that SpaceX went from paper to a steel rocket factory and the Starship’s (almost) multi-engine high-altitude flight testing in ~ 24 months, it’s not impossible to imagine the rocket ready. for a crewed space flight in space approximately 48 months from now.



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